"If the pollsters are united on one point, it is that they are not solely to blame for misleading the public; the fault must be shared with the press, they say, which has never fully understood the limitations of surveying.
Says Cuff Zukin, poll director of the Eagleton Institute of Politics: "We are overconsumed with predicting what will happen. Polls predicting who is going to win the election are worthless. First, they can be very inaccurate at the time of the election be cause they are only accurate at the time they are taken.
They do not predict the future." Agrees Marquette University Sociologist Wayne Youngquist: "The media want the pollsters to be seers. We want them to do more than they can."
Negative voting, large numbers of undecideds, low turnout — all these factors made polling this year more difficult. Says Caddell: "This is the first election in which the voters didn't really like either candidate much.""
And this was before cell phones. How many today have no land line?
Reagan’s dead, and McCain’s No Reagan.
Until we get a handle somehow on the media & school systems, I don’t hold out much hope for the future.
-—the fault must be shared with the press, they say, which has never fully understood the limitations of surveying.
I argue its evident the press doesn’t care rather then ‘never fully understood’.
Why beat around the bush? The story could cite 50 examples of the MSM misrepresenting poll numbers.
How’s this for a nightmare scenario.....
McCain refuses to slam the Democrats for Fannie-Freddie/subprime mortgages, yet he wins anyway. The media refuses to report the actual election results and says that Obama won. Obama supporters celebrate in the streets. McCain then concedes the election because he doesn’t want to appear “divisive”. He tells his supporters to put “Ccuntry First”, and promises them that he’ll reconsider drilling in ANWR when he returns to the Senate.
Haha. Americans loved Ronnie. Even back then the Democrats had no grasp of reality.
Everett Ladd, director of the University of Connecticut's Social Science Data Center, says flatly: "I am 100% certain that there was no 'closet Reaganism' in this election." Other pollsters tend to agree. But there is some evidence that suggests otherwise. Before the election, only 7% of the blacks surveyed by New York Times-CBS News said they were going to vote for Reagan; Election Day exit polling showed that 14% had ac tually cast their ballots for the Californian. But when re-polled by New York Times-CBS News, only 6% of blacks admitted they had voted for Reagan.
Never mind the Wilder Effect. There is a Closet Republican Effect!
Boy, do I remember this one. “Too close to call.” On election night I settled in, ready for a long night of nailbiting suspense . . . and when NBC’s election coverage signed on at 7:00 PM, John Chancellor was shocked, his face pale, as he looked into the camera and informed us that all indications were that there would be a decisive victory for (gulp) Ronald Reagan.
I have heard many times that you cannot study a system without affecting change on that same system. While that may be a gross generalization, I do believe that the more we are saturated with polls the less accurate they will become as they either cause voters to change their opinions, or affect the liklihood of a voter actually going to the polls.
Then: Are you going to vote for the incumbent President or a washed-up grade B cowboy movie star?
Now: Are you going to vote for the hope to the world, or be a bigot and vote for an old washed-up brain dead jet jockey?
Rush talking about this one now!
Interesting. This thread was just posted prominently on BadBlue.
If you still link to Drudge, by the way, you should look at BadBlue. Drudge figured prominently in the Romney slander against Newt before the Florida primary, and now appears to be acting as a surrogate for Filth Obama.
Hank
Interesting. This thread was just posted prominently on BadBlue.
If you still link to Drudge, by the way, you should look at BadBlue. Drudge figured prominently in the Romney slander against Newt before the Florida primary, and now appears to be acting as a surrogate for Filth Obama.
Hank