So what is that poll saying this time?
Good things, actually.
The polls seem to be all over the place in Ohio, but I find two polls to be “higher quality” than the others. Both polls were conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati. If 2004 is any guide, the final poll conducted by this outfit had the race at 50.1% for Bush and 49.2% for Kerry. The final results were 50.82% for Bush and 48.71% for Kerry. I think poll results within 1% of the actual results for each candidate is pretty darn good. This is the poll that I trust the most and it’s not because it is favorable to McCain.
Anyhow, here are the two most recent polls:
University of Cincinnat/Ohio Poll (9/5-9/10, 775 Likely Voters)
McCain 48%
Obama 44%
Ohio Newspaper Poll (9/12-9/16, 869 Likely Voters)
McCain 48%
Obama 42%
FWIW, they also predicted the exact finish of the 2006 Ohio Senate race.