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"We need to worry about CO and VA. Those two=victory."

RICHMOND - State elections officials say 306,215 Virginians have registered to vote since the beginning of the year.

Board of Elections Secretary Nancy Rodrigues says that’s a 7 percent increase in total voters.

Nearly 4.9 million Virginians are now registered to vote as of Thursday.

The pattern of new registrations appears to favor Democrat Barack Obama, and the largest percentage increase was in heavily Democratic Richmond.
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"Rock the Vote" bus [I think associated with ACORN] has visited the college capuses [VA-Tech, UVA, Radford, etc.] and registered students (primarily for Obama) and these students in the local news stories seem fired up to get out the vote for Obama.

It's going to take a huge Conservative turnout to counter this. I'm not saying there won't be, but Richmond, Tidewater and NoVA are three huge liberal chunks of the state and throw in the college campuses and you've got a significant challenge.

Ok, but you've got to remember, registering people means nothing in and of itself. In 2004, Jay Cost did an amazing analysis of OH and FL's supposedly "important" new Dem voter registrations. What he found was that in fact they were only replacing Dem voters who had left the state. Now, that's probably not the case in VA.

But "registering" can be done almost anywhere---a mall or whatever. These are the same people who wouldn't leave their houses with Hurricane Katrine bearing down on them . . . and they will turn out to vote? I'm not convinced.

That's why in the past (could change, of course) "Likely" voter polls are so much more accurate than "registered" voter polls.

“The pattern of new registrations appears to favor Democrat Barack Obama, and the largest percentage increase was in heavily Democratic Richmond.”

This is absolute garbage, Richmond and the surrouding vicinity will go big time for McCain. Obama will poll well in Northern VA, but not Richmond.

Obama is doing a great job to register the new voters. But, mind that he will lose at least 20% of the Dem votes. Even if he gets all the 7% new votes and 2% ACORN fraud votes, he will still fall short. Will be close though. Palin has to visit the white neighborhoods and fire up the base.