This is so amazing. I am a die hard Conservative Republican, life long. Yes I work for a Large Wall Street Firm. Here is the deal, forget about the equity market, it is the Money market, Bond Market that is Frozen, that effects all of America! Last Wendsday Commercial Paper froze up. It will happen again if we do not do something, once that stops the game changes. Just like 7 day AMS it may never restart. What does that effect, everything from Visa transactions, to Payrolls, to all lines of credit, banks have stoped lending to each other.
THere has been 189 billion barrowed from the Discount Window THis week to keep things rolling. THis is not 1929, this is worst, not an equity collaspe, but a Fixed Income/Money market failure. lines of credit will be withrawn, small company that rely of that to meet its cash needs will not make payroll, companys that issue Paper for its daily liquidy needs will not beable to meet obligations.
I can handle the equity market down 2000 points, it would mean there are some great equity buys, but id the the entire financial credit market was to fail then it would change America forever. WE can not handle a 1930’s style run on the banks!
Capitalism is based on the flow of capital, if this fails, we will become a socialst country.
I don’t know if this would happen, but I fear that it might. That does not mean the Paulson or Son of Paulson plan is the solution, however. I agree something must be done, but there is truth in the argument that a bailout now might well lead to a bigger fall later. The real question is, what is the likelihood of a total money market/bond market collapse? I’ve read so much stuff the past few days (not just here, but throughout the web) that I don’t know. Over at mises.org, their writers seem to think that a crash would not be so terrific and would be a better result. They were pretty spot on in predicting this bust, so I tend to trust them somewhat (though I totally disagree on their unequivocal anti-nationalist stance). On pure economic questions, however, they are pretty prescient.
Finally someone gets it. Banks hoarding/freezing cash means everything shutdown. It doesnt matter if you have debt or not. You got money in the bank you just cannot get it. Sorry come back tomorrow.
Welcome to 1929. Have you started hoarding cash yet?
Equity vs. Money market, with the latter in big trouble, an important disctinction that bears repeating.
Thanks.