[tatown]

If you look at just the national polls released today:

Ras: Obama +3
FD: Obama +4
Gallup: Tie
F&M: McCain +2
Battleground: McCain +1

You end up with Obama only being up 0.8% which is much tighter that the RCP average shows. Furthermore, if the polls were weighted at something closer to historical averages, McCain would almost certainly be ahead by a few points.

[tcrlaf]

The RCP average is being pulled by the OBVIOUS OUTLIER CBS Poll, that had Obama up by 9

[Wilder Effect]

Yes, even if they used the DEM+3 that was the final result of the awful 2006 elections, McCain would be up 2 or 3.

[cookcounty]

“If you look at just the national polls released today:

Ras: Obama +3
FD: Obama +4
Gallup: Tie
F&M: McCain +2
Battleground: McCain +1”

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And that FD/Hotline (sponsored by a liquor distributor) is a very very consistent outlier for Obama. The other polls bounce around a bit, but FD is always, every time, giving Obama higher numbers. Either ALL the other pollsters are idiots or FD is full of crap.