SurveyUSA 09/19 - 09/21 716 LV 45 51 Obama +6
InAdv/PollPosition 09/17 - 09/17 502 LV 48 46 McCain +2
National Journal/FD 09/11 - 09/15 400 RV 48 41 McCain +7
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/14 - 09/14 500 LV 48 48 Tie
So it looks like the National Journal and SurveyUSA offset, and it's a 1-2 point race in VA.
Which would be consistent with how the campaigns are behaving and spending money. And I'd make that a 2-pt advantage for McCain/Palin, which I expect to increase a bit before November.
Look at it this way. In 2006, a horrible year for the GOP, a former Republican with a strong military background had to go into overtime to defeat George Allen. (Granted George had the incumbency advantage, but Webb had strong name recognition.) But how would such a result translate into a 6-point Obama victory, during a Presidential year? It wouldn't. Factor in the SUSA internals, its immediate previous result with VA Presidential elections, and this poll really isn't worth worrying about.
I'd truly be worried about VA if the GOP were taking it for granted. That's not the case. McCain/Palin just visited there, drawing a huge crowd. They're spending $$$ to advertise in VA, and their national campaign HQ is headquartered in Arlington VA.