[TNCMAXQ]

I hope you are right. SUSA’s accuracy record is mixed, as I recall. If these numbers are correct though then it is a real worry. Even if McCain manages to pick off PA, he still loses without CO, IA, NM, and especially VA.

[impeachedrapist]

A blast from the past (2004 Survey USA poll on VA, days before the election):

Kerry Too Close to Bush for GOP's Comfort

They called it 51-47 for Bush, three days before the election. Kerry had abandoned the Old Dominion weeks before. Bush won by about 9 points, slightly improving his 8-point margin four years earlier.

[Looper]

Under that scenario—McCain picks up Pa. but loses Va., Colo., NM and Iowa—McCain still wins if he keeps the rest of the Bush states. If Obama loses Pa., it’s going to be very difficult for Obama to win the election.

[Wilder Effect]

In that scenario, McCain would win with 273 electorals.