Gallup is an outlier. And their internals confirm why...
Rasmussen is a better guage though he is still counting on a slightly higher Democratic turnout than Republican.
Of course the popular vote is meaningless...we need to be concentrating on states. Rasmussen, even after the McClain economic slide this week, still shows Pennsylvania within 2 points...which is a statistical tie and Scott Rasmussen said that PA is a state that seems to want to stay tied regardless what’s happening out on the trail meaning a lot of people have already made up their minds in that state. It will depend on turnout as to who wins.
My analysis shows that a 1% shift in poll results from Obama to McCain results in an increase of 25 Electoral Votes for McCain.
-PJ