Posted on 09/16/2008 10:31:50 AM PDT by drzz
PRINCETON, NJ -- The Sept. 13-15 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain (47%) and Barack Obama (46%) locked in a close contest when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the election were held today. The race has been in a statistical dead heat for the last five days, after McCain's lead grew to as large as five percentage points following the Republican National Convention. In essence, the race is back where it was before the flurry of political activity that began Aug. 25 with the Democratic National Convention and continued through the Republican convention, which concluded on Sept. 4.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
When is the LV poll coming out again? The one that showed a 10 pt McCain lead?
Same as Ras. One point lead for McCain. Thank goodness the battleground states are looking better than this national poll.
Too close for comfort. I think the debates will cause another separation, hopefully with us on the up side.
An RV poll at this point is practically useless.
O’Bama stops attacking Palin and gets a nudge up.
it is very scary to think that 46% of registered voters would support this angry, pessimistic, mysterious and scary man...
just...wow
it was asked by USA today, it was a special poll
Weekend poll data. A major hurricane affecting millions of primarily red states. Last time we had this scenario, Obama got up 4-5 points.
The problem is, we have been on defense the entire last week or so. First the sliming of Palin, and now the attacks over McCain being out of touch and bad for the economy are having some impact.
It is time for us to hit back hard and try to put the RATs back on the defensive. It will be tough to do since the MSM is completely in the tank for Obambi, but we must do it if we want to win this election.
Steve Schmidt has been brilliant so far. Lets see what tricks he has left up his sleeve.
McCain may have had a bad polling night last night. Even though the mortgage debacle is a Democrat scandal, it’s being portrayed on TV as “Republican mismanagement” and part of the bad “Republican economy”. Undecided voters are generally clueless and yesterday’s media barrage probably gave Obambi a boost in the one day sample. No one knows, thanks to media bias, that Obambi’s economic advisor was one of the men who engineered the debacle and that Obama was one of the favorite FannieMae Senators.
McCain needs to hit this hard or the media will succeed in covering up the truth, just as surely as they’ve protected Sandy Berger and Jamie Gorelick in their efforts to mask the Clinton administration’s failures in the war against terror.
General rule of thumb for Gallup polls (from a recent article at the Gallup website itself) is that a likely voter sample will be about 4 points more Republican than a registered voter sample.
I agree. The media is in full Obama support mode. McCain will have to act and act fast.
The Obama campaign defeated the inevitable Hillary. It should be no surprise that they are finding ways to fight. They aren’t going to surrender.
They are migrating their message from McCain/Bush to “it’s the economy, stupid.” McCain’s team needs to respond vigorously to defend the lead. Wall Street events are going to be part of this. A very effective attack on this front is the news from yesterday that Obama was the 2nd largest recipient of Fannie and Freddie donations.
Debates have essentially never been proven to move polls so don’t be looking for them to save the day. To get a lead and win in November will require some moderating in Wall Street events, strong campaigning and in the end, perhaps money exhaustion in the Obama campaign.
I don't buy into the "weekend poll" argument, but the hurricane in Texas and especially yesterday's financial news is probably giving Obama a slight temporary boost. And this is just registered voters, which in Gallup polls tend to be about 4 points more favorable to the Democrats than a likely voter sample (according to Gallup itself).
Just have to grind it out.
When you break these polls down by demographics—age, gender, political affiliation—they are not consistent with only a 1 point lead for McCain. Winning independents by double digits is not consistent even with merely a 4 point lead. Winning white women like McCain is should have him up huge. I am strongly suspect of the top line numbers on these polls.
RVs mean squat. Any LV numbers?
According to today's Gallup writup, "Monday night's interviewing did show Obama doing better than he has been in recent updates, but it will take several days to see if he can sustain an improved position." This shouldn't be surprising, given what happened in the financial markets yesterday.
Karl Rove does and said as much a week ago on FNC. He cited "technical reasons" why Dems poll better on the weekend but did not explain.
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