Posted on 09/16/2008 9:05:57 AM PDT by kingattax
Bad news for Barack Obama.
The contest between Barack Obama and John McCain in New Jersey is too close to call, with a new Quinnipiac University poll showing the battle for the state's fifteen electoral votes at 48%-45% among likely voters. Obama led McCain by ten percentage points, 51%-41% in an August Quinnipiac poll
This is the fourth independent poll within the last week to show New Jersey as an emerging battleground state in the presidential campaign. A Monmouth University/New Jersey poll released this morning shows Obama leading by 8 points, and a Marist College poll released Friday night had identical numbers to Quinnipiac, 48%-45%. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll from last week had Obama up by six points.
“The McCain-Palin ticket has narrowed the gap dramatically, but it will take more than this post convention bounce for the Republicans to win in true blue New Jersey. The upcoming debates probably will provide a clue to whether Sen. McCain can build on his current momentum, or whether the tide will turn back to the Democrats,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
New Jersey has been a state that Democrats could consistently look to as being in the bag for them. With McCain gaining so quickly, Obama will now be forced to allocate both time and money to securing it. Polls also show that McCain has pulled within 5 points in neighboring New York.
This has to be troubling to the Obama campaign, who no doubt have good reason to be worried.
Isn’t Schundler running again this election?
When/if NJ goes Red, we willknow that Governor Palin is here to stay....IMO it will happen by the end of Sept...
Where does NJ fit in with zerObama’s 57 state strategy? It used to be one of the states not requiring much attention. Now it’s movin’ on up.
Giuliani should be touring NJ, NY and possibly PA (especially the northeastern corner of PA) nonstop between now and election day.
Yes, I was aware of this election. NJ being close will only help Dick Zimmer in his quest to unseat Lautenburg. And for everyone who wants to say the usual "he has zero chance" and all that, thanks. I'm aware of NJ's history, and I know that its votes are usually much closer than what is portrayed here on FR. I remember in 2000 Bob Franks was outspent by Corzine something like $60 million to $6 mil, yet Corzine only pulled maybe 51% (operating on foggy memory here).
Zimmer's an underdog, but he's got a shot. However, if you haven't even heard of him then I'm guessing his fundraising probably is not going well at all.
[Corzine] defeated Republican Rep. Bob Franks in the [2000] general election, 50 percent to 47 percent.
Make no mistake about it Quinnipiac is a liberal-leftist polling outfit. I know Freepers accuse other pollsters of Obama-bias, with some merit, only one or two are as in the tank for Democrats as Quinnipiac. What this tells me is that the actual polling results for McCain are much better than the results they released....and if I’m right what you are seeing spells disaster for a certain community organizer.
I have no doubt that She Who’s Name Must Not Be Spoken is high-fiving Bill every night before they go to bed
If NY NJ and Penn are in play Bambi is looking like toast.
Easy now. If the election were tomorrow, I’d agree with you that The One would lose convincingly. But it’s a long ways away. And the polls are going to continue to fluctuate.
In [a] poll, conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University, Lautenberg was leading Zimmer by 45 percent to 28 percent. The poll of 589 registered voters was conducted between June 17 and 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Here
25 Jul 08:
The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll released yesterday found Lautenberg leading Dick Zimmer by 45 percent to 37 percent among likely voters.
Here
12 Aug 08, Quinnipiac:
Democratic incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg leads Republican challenger Dick Zimmer 48 - 41 percent among likely New Jersey voters, a more select group than registered voters surveyed in previous polls.
19 Aug 08:
Democrat Frank Lautenberg has a 50%-32% lead over Republican Dick Zimmer in the race for U.S. Senate, according to a Zogby International poll released today.
Here
These are NOT good numbers for an incumbent senator. Even the best of those polls only shows Lautenberg at 50%. If McCain/Palin simply make an appearance with Zimmer, it could boost his fundraising and name recognition substantially and perhaps make this one a nailbiter. Others laughed at me last week for suggesting Lautenberg could lose. That's fine. Just going on polls, I'd say Zimmer's got a shot at stealing a seat.
After digging through FEC data from June 30th of this year, it appears Lautenberg has $1.3 million in cash on hand, but $3 million in debt. Zimmer has $411K on hand, but only $277K in debt. So Zimmer actually appears to be in better shape right now.
Lautenberg has raised $6.2 million total, but spent every penny. And he still can't break 50% in the polls?!?
Look, you have to add at least 4 percentage “fraud” points to the Democrat in Jersey.
Its also my understanding that the reason the Kean group wanted so badly to get one of their own nominated was to defeat a decent man, a good candidate, a solid Republican and a man who unabashedly ran in the Republican primary as as “conservative” - Joe Pennachio.
Mr. Pennachio, one time Freeholder, State Assemblyman and current State Senator, had long record of supporting all the values so many of us here on Free Republic support.
Dick Zimmer was a man who was out of office for many years and who lost his share of elections.
I believe he was chosen because his Republican values are so diluted that they meet with the approval of the Keans and their associates.
I hope Mr. Zimmer loses to Lautenberg. He doesn't deserve to be elected to the U.S. Senate.
If states like NJ and NY were to be called for McCain, the after work DemocRAT turnout on the west coast could be seriously depressed. DemocRATS could lose quite a few seats in congress in west coast states.
Thanks for your detailed input. I’m gonna plug it into the other thread I started. Zimmer undoubtedly wouldn’t have been my first choice in a primary, were I living in NJ, but that’s water under the bridge.
McCain needs to run some adds in the Philadelphia market to get the play in New Jersey and then he should sent Joe Lieberman into Connecticut and New York with a modest ad buy in New York City as well as some ads in Erie to get a two-for-one in Western PA and upstate New York to force Obama to spend money in New York.
Proposal to Team McCain: Three-day PALIN bomb drop on NJ, NY and Mass (Operation Dolittle)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2083046/posts
Proposal to Team McCain: Three-day PALIN bomb drop on NJ, NY and Mass (Operation Dolittle)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2083046/posts
Proposal to Team McCain: Three-day PALIN bomb drop on NJ, NY and Mass (Operation Dolittle)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2083046/posts
!!!!
Stat.
Oh I know it’s a long long way to the election.
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