Morning all. I peeled off about 0230, eye had just come ashore, and per tcrlaf, the Galveston Pier was reporting 12.18 feet of surge. Huge difference in how much of Galveston is under water between 12 and 13 feet.
Obviously, wave action would have brought the flooding up to the roughly 80 percent flooded mark that 13 feet of still water would bring, but a critical difference may have been that the waves were fighting to get over the seawall and “high” ground, expending their energy there, instead of against the cities themselves.
Possibility that Ike laid on surge over a huge area, without a high peak at the eyewall.
Winds were gusting to 120 mph, measured, right about where residential construction begins to fail substantially.
I expect to see breaches opened across western Galveston Island, and Texas City was, due to wind theoretically subject to higher than average surge, maybe 15 feet, but Galveston and Houston MAY, repeat MAY, have dodged a bullet, damage severe in spots but just below the levels necessary to wipe large swaths of city down to bare sand.
We won’t know till the aircraft get up, make tours, get bck and press conferences are held.
As of 0230 Cantore had bailed to the Holiday Inn, which was later reported to be losing brick and going under water. Heraldo was outside, pushing drama, up in, or up against, or being fondled by a small tree.
No apparant word from any of them to my knowlege.