I think we’ll win NH, but am less optimistic about NM.
I wouldn’t write off SD just yet, second-tier opponent or not. You never know whether McCain/Palin voters (which will get around 60% of the vote despite the Obama boomlet earlier this year) will indeed vote for a liberal Democrat like Tim Johnson just because he had an incapacitating stroke.
If we win NH, I’ll be very surprised. Sununu ought to tie Shaheen to Che Porter and the radical Dems that hijacked the NH gov’t in 2006.
As for SD, that doesn’t even seem to be registering on the radar screen. It makes little sense for the Dakotas to be sending rodents to DC when they’re top heavy with Republican majorities in state office, yet they continue to do so. If Johnson gets less than 60%, I will be again, very surprised. Personally, I think Rounds may be waiting for Johnson to die (given that near-fatal stroke, if he makes it another 6 years, that will be quite a feat) so he can have himself appointed. I still wish he had run this year, instead.