Sarah Palin may be hurting McCain among Jewish voters

A life-long Democrat, Robert Canvasser was talking himself into voting for Republican John McCain because he just wasn't comfortable with his own party's choice of Barack Obama. But then McCain selected first-term Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate ahead of last week's Republican convention.

"That put me back to Obama," said the real estate developer who splits his time between Michigan and Florida, both crucial swing states in the presidential election. "Don't misunderstand me. I'm not happy with Obama. But I'm certainly not happy with her."

Canvasser is part of a trend among some Jewish Democrats who have had doubts about Obama, particularly because of his lack of experience and his take on foreign policy issues such as Iran, but now find themselves inclined to support him after both sides selected their vice presidential nominees.

"There has been a tremendous turnaround since the Democratic convention," said Florida State Senator Steve Geller, who at the convention in Denver three weeks ago had described outright hostility among many Jewish Democratic seniors in his district at the thought of an Obama presidency. "After the convention, people are willing to listen. Before the convention, they weren't willing to listen."

He attributed that partly to recent visits to the Sunshine State by high-profile Democrats such as vice presidential nominee Joe Biden as well as the strong endorsement of Hillary Clinton from the convention floor. Indeed, Canvasser also said that the warm embrace of Clinton, whom he had backed, for her erstwhile rival had helped tether him to Obama.

"Sarah Palin is helping a lot. Sarah Palin in seen as a right-wing evangelical [pick]," he said. He added that while that perception helps the McCain campaign with many Christian voters energized by a so-called hockey mom who hunts and fishes in her spare time, "Most of our South Florida condo people are appalled at seeing her standing over a moose."

Her views on social issues - pro-life, anti-gun control and the like - definitely helped discourage Seymour Ross of Delray Beach from voting for the Republican ticket. While he has been wavering between the two candidates because he thinks Obama would "make nice" with Iran, Palin's "extreme conservative views" have tilted him more toward the freshman Illinois senator.

"I still would have been going in the direction of Obama, but it makes it a little bit clearer," Ross explained.

His feeling is something the National Jewish Democratic Council has seized on to raise money from supporters.

"Palin is totally out of step with public opinion in the Jewish community" on domestic issues and has "zero foreign policy experience," the organization wrote in a fund-raising letter sent out last week. It also started an on-line petition asking: "McCain: What were you thinking when you selected Palin?"

At the same time, the Obama campaign has increased its Florida outreach efforts, announcing that it formed six Jewish Community Leadership Committees throughout the state comprised of backers involved in Jewish non-profits, schools, synagogues and other facets of the community. They also count several rabbis among their members, some of upwards of 400 who have joined the campaign effort as part of the group "Rabbis for Obama."

"Our field operation," according to Bobby Gravitz, Obama's regional communications director for South Florida, "is the largest organization of any Democratic campaign statewide ever."

He said that while certain misinformation about Obama's positions on Iran and other issues continues to circulate, the campaign has been successful in putting to rest at least some rumors - such as his being a Muslim - that have harmed the candidate among Jewish voters.

The McCain campaign also points to inaccurate rumors as hurting its efforts to woo Jews, such as the erroneous charge that Palin once endorsed Republican Pat Buchanan. But it is not ceding any ground, and still expects exceptional Jewish turnout despite American Jews' long-standing preference for the Democratic Party.

"At the end of the day, this is a contest between Barack Obama and John McCain, and for Jewish voters across the country. That's the decision they'll have to make," said the campaign's deputy communications director, Michael Goldfarb. "We're confident they'll move to John McCain in large numbers."

"You can't get farther away from Pennsylvania and Florida and New York than Alaska," he explained. "It's a question of introducing her to these communities." Goldfarb stressed her commitment to Israel and said that once the Jewish community gets to know her, "They're going to be extremely comfortable with her."

"She's not going to overturn Roe v. Wade," said Boca Raton retiree Alan Bergstein, referring to the landmark Supreme Court case granting women the right to an abortion.

He said he intends to continue backing McCain because of concerns over Obama's attitude toward issues such as Israel, and his conclusion that "McCain would be a stronger candidate for the defense of our country."

And Florida political activist Adele Berger, a Clinton supporter who is now pushing for Obama, said that still for many of her fellow Democrats, "There are many, many people here that do have issues with Obama. I'm working very, very hard to overcome that. It's going to be difficult."

Berger said that for all the Obama surrogate visits to her state, they have yet to come to her area of Pembroke Pines, a major Jewish enclave, which has been frustrating. "We need someone with a name, to make them understand" why they should support the Democratic nominee, she said.

Obama and several top surrogates, including former president Bill Clinton, have trips to Florida in the works for this month, though it's not clear exactly where they will appear. But wherever they go, Geller is confident that they will face more supportive audiences than he once encountered.

"In general, he has more work to do, but it's no longer walking into a hostile crowd. You sill have some people who are hostile [toward Obama], but today most are friendly," he said. "Does he still have work to do? Absolutely. Has he fixed most of it? Yes. But it's still hard."

wow... things have changed somewhat since Wilson. Debs had polled strongly in New York State in 1912, apparently didn’t run for P in 1916, and in 1920, he grabbed 38 per cent of the Jewish vote. In 1924 more than half voted against the businessman Cal Coolidge and for his Demwit opponent, and La Folette grabbed 22 per cent, nearly as much as Coolidge. Al Smith wound up behind all subsequent Dhimmicrat candidates except Stevenson (twice), McGovern (fiasco), Carter-Mondale, Mondale-someotherloser, and Dukakis. Pattern? Since Hoover, the only Pubbies to win with less than Hoover’s 28 per cent were Nixon (1968) and President Bush (2000; figures from 2004 weren’t on that page, I’m guessing he improved little among Jewish voters).

Interestingly, there’s a decent third-party streak in this range of years — Debs, La Folette, (Henry) Wallace, (George) Wallace (!), John Anderson (second only to Henry Wallace), Perot (’92 and ‘96), and the ethnically Egyptian Arab hater of Israel, Ralph Nader.

Looks like most of the Jewish voters breaking from Carter in 1980 wound up voting for Anderson instead, with the rest going to Reagan — but it probably was a 45-55 split between the two. I think it’s a good guess that the Jewish Perot voters would otherwise have voted Pubbie. “Clean Gene” McCarthy got about 1 per cent of the overall vote in 1976 (if memory serves), which was also the first time I’d ever heard of Lyndon LaRouche, who ran as the USLP candidate that year.

McCain should pull in more Jewish voters than GWB has; also, any who jump from the major parties aren’t likely to jump from the Pubbie ticket — unless there’s a huge surge of Jewish voters writing in Ron Paul... ;’)

Eugene Victor Debs (1855 - 1926)
http://www.aflcio.org/aboutus/history/history/debs.cfm

[snip] On Christmas Day 1921, President Warren G. Harding, a Republican, freed Debs and 23 other prisoners of conscience. Debs’ socialist movement was now dead, the victim of government repression and internal factional fighting between opponents and supporters of the new Bolshevik regime in Russia. But the socialist ideal lived on, inspiring a new generation of social reformers in the 1930s who, under the banner of the New Deal, enacted most of the programs and policies called for in the Socialist Party platform of 1912. It was not the socialist commonwealth, but it was a genuine achievement — one for which Debs and his followers legitimately could claim some credit. [end]

The Buying of the President 2008 : The Hanna Project :
Election Year : 1912 - Wilson vs. Taft
http://www.buyingofthepresident.org/index.php/the_hanna_project/election_year/1912_wilson_vs_taft/

[snip] During the Taft administration, Congress passed laws setting spending limits for U.S. Senate and House campaigns (later struck down by a federal court) and requiring disclosure of contributions for those races. Oddly, legislators have neglected to set similar rules for presidential campaigns. [end]

Are American Jews Becoming Republican? Insights Into Jewish Political Behavior
by Dr. Steven Windmueller
December 15, 2003

Trend-Lines
In relative terms, the impact of American Jewish voting clout continues to decline, as can be noted in New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Illinois, and California. Even in Los Angeles County, where Jews account for around 4 percent of the electorate (the same percentage as the Jewish vote nationally), the Jewish "leverage factor" in several close state and county races appears to have been minimal.

A Luntz Research Poll in April 2003 showed that 48 percent of Jews surveyed said they would consider voting for President Bush in 2004. The poll also found that Bush's performance moved 27 percent of Jewish voters to say they were more likely to vote for Republicans for other offices as well.

According to one scenario, the Jewish vote might still be significant in determining the 2004 presidential election. Four key states with significant Jewish populations account for 128 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win: California (55), New York (31), Florida (27), and New Jersey (15). Adding the next five states with large Jewish populations brings 84 additional electoral votes: Illinois (21), Pennsylvania (21), Ohio (20), Massachusetts (12), and Maryland (10). Thus, the "Jewish vote" could have a major impact on the outcome of 212 electoral votes or 78 percent of the total needed to secure the White House.

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