[Sooth2222]

"Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated."

That's my guess as to where the problem is with the Rasmussen polling. Claimed party identification probably changed significantly over just a few days following Sarah Palin's speech.

I could call myself a Republican, Libertarian, Democrat or an independent, and I would not be lying, since my state doesn't require a political party to be declared except to vote in a primary.

[bushsupporter30]

I guarantee you the numbers are probably closer with independents to a 50/50 sample.

If we look at that, the 5% bounce makes sense that is showing in other polls.

Of course, am hoping the Bradley effect will counter the fraud and ground game efforts on the Rat sides so that will be a wash.

[impeachedrapist]

Thanks for that data. I was just looking for it. So in August Rasmussen's gap was 9 points, now it's been adjusted to 7.6% (39.7 Ds - 32.1 Rs). Still almost two points higher than his stated identification in early September, due to the lagging rolling average.

And I have nothing but anecdotal evidence, but I'm quite certain the 5.7% gap has further closed in the past weeks since Ras' data was compiled.

[longtermmemmory]

I wonder how much operation chaos factors into the polling.