I would argue that Roosevelt knew a Japanese military response to the embargo was nearly certain, but thought it would either be aimed specifically at the Philippines or would be repulsed if aimed at Pearl Harbor.
It’s certainly extremely hard to argue that he knew going to bed on Dec. 6th that the Japanese fleet was on its way to Pearl Harbor.
Exactly right. The real question is why MacArthur was so incredibly ill prepared in the Philippines. Mac could be great, but like Custer, he could be a boob sometimes.