[Chet 99]

I can’t believe anyone still cites to Intrade after it had Pawlenty at nearly 90% to be picked as VP.

When bad exit polls leaked in 2000, the betting sites all went to Kerry.

I think a Chimp flinging poop at the electoral college map would be a better indicator than Intrade.

[Plutarch]

I can’t believe anyone still cites to Intrade after it had Pawlenty at nearly 90% to be picked as VP.

Markets in general, and Intrade in particular, are good at trends, risk, and general opinion. Not so good, however, at mind reading. McCain's pick, swinging between Lieberman, Ridge and ultimately Palin, was totally arbitrary and capricious. A market is good at rational, but not the frothy ferment of McCain's mind.