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I’d like to direct FR’s attention to the following:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/WI/P/00/epolls.0.html

Those are 2004’s results for Wisconsin.

And:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/P/00/epolls.0.html

This is Pennsylvania’s.

Note the number of non white men and women as a differential in the two states. 9 and 10% for PA and 4 and 6% for WI. There are fewer blacks in Wisconsin as a portion of the state.

Also, note that the GOP has a registration edge in WI, vs PA.

Bush got 14 and 16% of the black vote in WI and PA and McCain will do worse than that, but Wisconsin has so few that the natural Obama advantage is diluted.

So how did Kerry win WI? White women. White women voted Bush in PA, but in WI Kerry got an edge. This is the bulk of the Wisconsin electorate and we should expect McCain to outperform Bush there. The black vote will go more strongly for Obama, but there are fewer of them there than in PA.

Wisconsin can be grabbed. 10 Electoral Votes. It could undo loss of CO with NM and IA.