I disagree. We have $10 million raised in less than 72 hours over a holiday weekend. That's rock hard information, that indicates a fired up base. Without that, McCain almost certainly loses.
Does he still need some mushy middle voters? Sure. But the polling numbers are still pretty early. To read anything into them at this point is meaningless. As folks keep saying, this time next week will give us a better feel. And I expect to see a very close race once again. Just like last week. Just like 2004. And just like 2000.
“...a fired up base. Without that, McCain almost certainly loses.”
Wrong. McCain was already getting the same number of votes out of the base that Bush did. That support has been showing up in the polling all summer. Too many Freepers spend all their energy dissing polls rather than looking at the internals and learning something.
The battle, like all elections, is for the middle. There, McCain is having trouble because he is doing very badly, horrendously badly, terribly, horribly badly among independent women. The McCain campaign was smart enough to see that even if most Freepers didn’t, and it is those independent female votes that Palin was put on the ticket to win.
Your post perfectly illustrates my point that Freepers need to get out of the echo chamber once in a while. The base was going to vote reluctantly for McCain. Now they’re going to vote enthusiastically for McCain/Palin. Those are happier voters, but not MORE votes. MORE votes is what McCain needs to win, and as of yet, he is not getting them.
Instead, Obama is getting his convention bounce, which is coming from consolidating Democrat support. He hasn’t won the middle either, yet. The battle for the independent females who will decide the new President is on. If Palin wins ‘em over, McCain will win. If not, Obama will win.