Posted on 08/31/2008 10:07:34 AM PDT by jokyfo
The Democratic presidential ticket of Obama-Biden holds a six percentage point lead over the Republican McCain-Palin ticket, 48% to 42%, in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Thursday to Saturday
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
That’s down three points in the last two days. It appears as though Obama is headed back to his pre-convention levels in the immediate term. My guess is that the latest day’s data from that rolling average they use probably only had him up by 2 or 3 points.
Other polls have McCain/Palin up by as much 4-5 points. Who’s correct?
More importantly, what do the polls say about Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, and Florida?
I believe this poll included Thursday, a day before we were Palinized! Let’s wait til next week to see how the tea leaves read.
What polls are you talking about?
I believe that Gallup uses registered voters not likely and they usually don’t show the breakdown by party. If they do I may not have looked deep enough.
Zogby had McCain Palin up 47%-45%.
The real key is that Obama did not run out from the convention with some huge lead that would be hard to hack away at. There appears to be no lasting “bounce”, which gives us all a chance to keep working hard to inform those voters who still can be swayed to our side.
Ditto
As usual we only find out on Election Day.
I know you’re gonna take offense to this, sorry but... Please STOP posting garbage like that!!! There was one poll, a week ago, before the convention that showed JM ahead by 5. That’s it, and it’s clearly irreevant now... What’s wrong with you folks, really?
Folks- hate to burst your bubble, but this is an on-line poll... Means nothing... It's not the Reuters/Zogby traditional poll... That poll, done just before the Dem convention had McCain up by 5...
the 2 most reliable polls right now are Gallup- H up by 8, and Rasmussen, H up by 4... Best guess is H was up by 5 on the semi-avg of the 2, before Palin
Gallup seemed to get some kind of Outlier polls on Wed/Thur of last week. They went from Obama+2 to Obama+9 almost overnight. On a 3 day tracking poll, that would mean Obama would have gotten a 15-18 point lead on Wednesday and/or Thursday night. That is highly unlikely, considering most other tracking polls showed it staying in the 3-4 point range.
Another interesting thing to note, is that Obama’s bounce came after Hillary and Bill’s speeched on Tues and Wed nights (Wed and Thur polling). Doesn’t look like Obama got anything on Friday from his speech on Thursday. In fact, it looks like his poll numbers went down after the speech. Whether that is response to his speech, or the masterful timing of McCain’s VP announcement, only time will tell.
Also, this weekend is hard to judge poll wise. This is a major US holiday weekend. A lot of folks are travelling and doing other things. Hurrican Gustav is getting a lot of news also.
I think Palin’s pick is a game changer of pretty significant proportions. Just look at all the news and chatter. The conservative base is not just happy with McCain/Palin, they are absolutely thrilled and energized. I could tell it at church today. Folks were all talking about Palin and how impressive she has been in just the short amount of time they have seen her.
Compare the discussion and chatter about Palin to Biden. Absolutely no comparision. She was THE news story on Friday, and is probably only 2nd to Gustav right now. Who is even talking about Obama or his speech?
Once they really get a chance to introduce Palin to Americans, they will fall in love with her. She and her family are real. Blue Collar, living the American dream. Her values align with 60-70% of the public. She comes across as bright, intelligent, articulate, compassionate, caring, strong, self confident, and humorous.
A week from now, McCain will be up 4-5 in almost every poll. And then the key to watch will be those mid-western battleground states. If PA, MI, MN, & WI start shifting McCain, you know what effect she is having.
Gallup’s poll is a three day tracking through yesterday, 2 full days of Palin and Obama’s speech. 6 points now is good for McCain as you can expect the Thursday numbers to drop off tomorrow. Remember, Thursday was Bubba’s well-accepted speech. All in all, I think very good news for McCain.
Rasmussen, judging by the last election. I haven’t trusted Gallup for years.
This is the Reagan Democrat/Blue Collar crowd that they need. This is VERY bad news for the RATS.
My statement still stands that if the RATS weren't up by +10 coming out of the convention they are toast. (even the skewed polls can get them to +10) and the zogby was weighted with over 33% more democrats sampled and it showed mcCain up by 3.
Sucks (again) to be a RAT. Recreate 00 and 02 in 08. Hah!
see my post in #19, there were breakdowns by affiliation, but didn’t give total of each group surveys, just a general “more than 1000 people” They usually oversample RATS like the latest Zogby did but still has McCain up.
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