[Ingtar]

One thing about your analysis: if Virginia is at risk, picking Romney seals it in the Obama column and hurts in many more traditionally Republican places. The thinking is this: if McCain says he is like the Social Conservatives at Saddleback, then picking Romney puts a lie to his own words.

[Red Steel]

if Virginia is at risk, picking Romney seals it in the Obama column and hurts in many more traditionally

In any case, it's doubtful Obama picks off Virginia.