Any ship that passes through the Turkish Straits on the surface will be seen by Russian spies. There have to be some watching ship traffic at all times. And a sub is unlikely to pass through under water, since it would be so dangerous. The Straits are shallow and winding, and there's a lot of surface traffic. Easy to either ground the sub, or hit a surface ship, both of which would be bad. (I'm not even sure the straits are deep enough for a submarine to pass through without surfacing.) But the word "unlikely" does not mean the same thing as "no possibility".
Thank you once again.