The only reason for the drop in crude prices is that demand destruction is happening.The only other reason being that short-sellers are anticipating a supply increase in domestic production.
With refiners running at the capacity they are, and crude supplies now declining in Mexico, Russia, etc... the short sellers might take it down in the short term (like for the next two months). There has been a savage run-up, much of which has been due to speculation in oil. I’d reckon that unless the economic numbers turn around on the head of a pin, we’re going to very likely see oil break under $100, and quite possibly under $90.
I don’t see that being the case in the long term (4 years+), unless the demand destruction really hammers both the US and BRIC economies to a point where demand falls back under comfortable world-wide production.