Okay, you keep basing your “reality” on “zero” evidence.
I’ll base mine on U.S. history since about, oh, the 1830’s.
Sorry, but in the United States,—
(1) the winner-take-all system at the national level,
(2) the fact that candidates must win a majority of Electoral College votes to win the election,
(3) and the fact that, if no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the Constitution requires the House of Representatives to decide the Election (and no third party—even Teddy Roosevelt’s-—has fielded more than a handful of candidates for Congress) - - -
make it highly unlikely (shall we say, UNREALISTIC) to conclude that a third party candidate can win the presidency in 2008.
One doesn’t need a time machine to see into the future. One only needs to learn from history and from studying our system to know what the real odds are.
Really? Well, I'll be! So could you be so kind as to pass on tomorrow's lottery numbers? The results of the next Super Bowl would be grand. And you can throw in a stock tip or two while you're at it.
You continue to miss the point; the whole target, for that matter. Yes; if you were to give me even money, I would bet that a major party candidate would win. I'm not questioning that.
What you're missing repeatedly, is that it is this way because you make it so. Election results are not handed down from the heavens, nor or they dice rolls. The realities of what makes them true are so because of the people that participate. People like you.
The point of this is not to make some prediction about what is going to happen. Unlike you, I don't claim that power. The point is to remind you that history is not something that exists outside of our actions like some movie that we passively watch. We make history. The point isn't too predict; it's to decide what our actions will be today. Not the 1830's, not during Teddy Roosevelt's time, not during the Reagan era. Today.
And today, I see not a single reason to enable this one-arty-two-headed disease of a state any longer.
Let me point out something that you might have forgotten: every revolutionary force in history was so because they broke with historical trends, not followed it. See my image above for Exhibit A in this category. If you want to keep telling yourself that you can't do this, be my guest. Bragging that you're doing what history has ordered you to do only engraves your name deeper on those chains around your wrists. And I'm not telling you that you need to take them off. Feel free to keep them. Just please don't suggest that because you don't want to do what is necessary to take them off that it must simply be impossible.