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You are walking on dangerous ground here at FR but you are 100% Correct.

High Oil Prices Are Here to Stay.

It is likely that we never see $100.00 oil but rather $175.00 to $200.00 oil within the next 24 months.

Only because types like you wish it. There is plenty of supply - both long and short term. You and others like you who are pushing peak oil theory will kill the economy and break the back of this nation. I am sure you are more than tickled.

High Oil Prices Are Here to Stay.

Maybe, maybe not.

The problem with all of this prediction stuff is that it is impossible to predict the future.

The price of oil is a perfect example. The problem is that we have too many variables. The other problem is that oil is a fungible commodity whose price direction is largely driven by the last units sold. Demand, supply, distribution (refineries), taxes, speculation, depreciation of the dollar, etc. all play a major role in determining the price and many of them are completely independent variables.

Merely increasing domestic production will do nothing to affect the price of gas if world wide demand keeps increasing. What it will do though is help maintain the value of the dollar. The problem is that we are shelling out more than 700 billion a year for oil, it is the trade deficit coming back to bite us.

For what it is worth (nothing) I think that the price of oil has peaked for at least the next year or so. I fully expect the price to fall below $100 as the Chinese end their oil subsidies and as demand falls in response to the high prices. The main problem I have with that prediction though is that the Fed seems determined to continue manufacturing money to keep the financial institutions solvent. If the Fed doesn't keep pumping out the money we would in all likely hood be facing the prospect of deflation and a depression.