“A major problem is that the MSM, Newsweek, Bloomberg, CNN all have a poll a day showing The Messiah above ole John by 12-15 points nationally.”
The real point is that polls this far from the general election (and even primary votes) have been spectacularly inaccurate on many occasions. They mean little because so much can happen, positive and negative, for each candidate.
“Obama is two generations removed from McCain-—much bigger gap than Carter/Reagan.”
Not really, 72 and 47 is 25 years, just one generation, or slightly less with the average age of marriage these days around 26.
I think both candidates are so flawed that either could seriously damage his chances more than once between now and November. Just too early to draw any confident conclusions yet.
I personally don't think any Republican could be Obama this year without making a firm, consistent, and well-argued conservative case for drilling, for foreign affairs, and so on. Not one of the candidates who had any shot at winning could do so.
History shows that the only polls that are accurate are taken nine, four, and two months before an election. Next up is July.