Obama vs. McCain, by the map

Los Angeles Times ^ | June 5, 2008 | Michael Finnegan, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Associated Press photos Both Barack Obama and John McCain must focus on states that Bush won in 2004.

In many states that President Bush captured in the 2004 election, Barack Obama has swelled the ranks of Democrats by the thousands, drawing record numbers of young people and African Americans to the polls.

But will this enthusiasm -- which propelled his victory Tuesday in the race for the Democratic nomination -- deliver enough of these states to Obama to win the presidency?

That question is on the minds of strategists plotting the Democratic Party's drive to retake the White House. In national polls, Obama runs about even with Republican John McCain, but he cannot win the 270 electoral votes he needs unless he picks up states that Bush won.

McCain, for his part, must hold all of Bush's states, or else carry some new ones to make up for any losses.

"Everybody's top priorities will be those 12 to 15 swing states that were close in 2004," said Charles Black, a senior McCain advisor.

For weeks, Obama and McCain have crossed paths in those states, with a particular emphasis on Florida. When South Dakota and Montana handed Obama the delegates needed to clinch the nomination Tuesday night, he did not celebrate in either state, but in Minnesota -- a state that is crucial for Democrats to hold.

Obama is running in a climate that strongly favors Democrats. Advisors say he is well-placed to expand the map of Democratic states to Colorado and Virginia, a pair of Bush states now more friendly to his party -- and might even add such GOP strongholds as Georgia.

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The upshot will be that Obama's poll numbers, if reported accurately, will be an overestimate of his actual election day vote. And you can set your watch by that - and by the fact that the usual suspects will be saying, "No justice, no peace" after Obama loses "unexpectedly." And on that day we will all be wishing that we had a black conservative VP-elect. Unfortunately, I doubt if John McCain is far-sighted enough, and patriotic enough, to nominate such a person.

So our political system has come down to, vote for a black man or risk civil war?

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

So our political system has come down to, vote for a black man or risk civil war?

I doubt that - but I do expect some disturbance if, as I expect, Obama loses - especially if, as I also expect, pre-election polls show him being competitive or ahead.

[j_tull]

McCain’s rather popular in Massachusetts.

I work in the Berkshires, and have in-laws on the "south coast." Bush hatred is so deep that there is not a chance in Hell McStain carries MA.