It depends on lots of factors. If it’s a normal year, and if GOP’s support is not in the dump, this alone will easily give McCain a blowout win. However, this is not a normal year, I’m pretty sure the defection rate will be higher than past elections because of the deep animosity between Obama and Clinton supporters, but so is the defection rate by GOP base and independent voters from McCain.
Election is all number’s game. It all ends up with who can cross 50%.
But I do believe the threat of these white women is very real. Identity politics is very powerful and it makes people’s decision irrational.
I do believe the real risk here is Obama/Clinton ticket. It will be a blowout victory... I don’t believe there will be enough white male to deny rats such victory in an ‘abnormal’ election year.
The ticket will almost certainly be Obama/Clinton. McCain will have to pick a woman or a Hispanic as his running mate. Any plausible hispanic women out there?