Yea, but they ALL vote. And they give money.
I wasn’t really disputing you. You’re right on both counts, and we know how close even large-state contests can be. What might be realistic for the swing from their regular pattern—from 80-85% Democratic to maybe, 65-75%, depending on how big a blowout Obama would have to suffer nationally?
That’d be maybe a 15% swing on 4% of the vote? That’s a little over a half (.6) % of the total vote. Not nothing.