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People, think.
The choice begins, and essentially ends, with Electoral Votes.
While you are spot-on about the EV situation, we ARE in fact thinking - but about something different. McCain is very liberal and many conservatives will not vote for him. A conservative, or even a possible one, on the ticket, could change some minds (mine included). Any conservatives in those states you mentioned?
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There are certainly possible candidates from those states who are more conservative than Obama, which is all that matters. The EV situation in Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and New Mexico does constrain the choice to people who can bring those EVs to the table.
Of the choices discussed, only Romney can make a claim to help in one of those states, which are the only ones that will matter this year. Michigan EVs can be brought into play by Romney.
I think that you are greatly overestimating Romney's popularity in Michigan. Despite it being his "home state", Romney only carried 38.9% of the vote in the Republican primary. That is a pretty unimpressive total but even more so when you consider how much money Romney spent in the state and the Democrat cross-over vote. Remember the Democrats had their own "Operation Chaos" going in Michigan since they knew their votes weren't going to count in the Democrat primary. Several liberal groups were calling for Democrats to vote for Romney in order to lengthen the Republican primary.
I think that Mitt Romney is as likely to deliver Michigan's EVs as he is Massachusetts' EVs.
I doubt Romney gets the nod for VP due to the FLDS issue. Mitt Romney would be spending all his time explaining that the FLDS isn't mainstream LDS. The Democrats and their willing accomplices in the MSM will do everything they can to obscure the distinction between the two Mormon groups.