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There's plenty evidence that the price of oil increases even when supply grows more than expected. To me that suggests something else besides 'peak oil'.

Well, the Senate was holding 'hearings' again, which usually precedes some misguided but highly visible attempt to "fix" things, and it is an election year, which increases the pressure to "do" something, with a high probability of catastrophic unintended consequences, (especially since most of the Senators I listened to have no clue about the industry or economics or hide it really well if they do), so there is probably a GF factor of at least 10% in the price, just because they might follow up with some grandstanding ingenious legislation which would further hobble the industry or maybe just crash the global economy once and for all.

No one is safe when their lips are moving.