Posted on 05/21/2008 9:10:04 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
Looking at the Progress Energy website: Coal 47% Gas/Oil 18% Nuclear 35% Right now electricity costs me around $.08kwh on avg. Maybe a little less.
I need someone to explain why a weak dollar = expensive oil. I don’t get it. If the dollar is weak, and oil is traded in it, wouldn’t oil be cheaper?
NYMEX crude index 132.72
RBOB gasoline 3.32
heating oil 3.89
Pretty much terra incognita.
There's plenty evidence that the price of oil increases even when supply grows more than expected. To me that suggests something else besides 'peak oil'.
"Oil hits record despite supply growth After an initial dip, crude futures settle at a record $123.53. Government report shows that crude inventories jumped more than expected and gasoline stockpiles grew."
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/07/markets/oil_eia/
When OPEC was formed they agreed to price oil in dollars. That was when the dollar was on the gold standard and was a stable currency.
Since Nixon took us off that gold standard (and the ensuing OPEC embargo) the dollar "floats" on the world market against a "basket" of currencies.
In 1964 an US Quarter (90% silver) would buy a gallon of gasoline. In 2008 that same 1964 US quarter is worth about $3.65 and will still buy a gallon of gasoline.
So if you have gold or silver, you wouldn't notice much change in the price of gas.
What's dramatically changed is the value of all that paper money you have.
What neck of the woods???? I live in Oregon and my gas bill just showed a drop from $1.07/therm to $1.05/therm. $1.80, yikes.
I disagree. This is a transitional period. A LOT more oil can be recovered with directional drilling and enhanced recovery methods and smart well technology. But oil companies will not bother making large-scale investments in that technology until they are convinced the price of oil will stay above the extract cost of those new technologies. They've been burned before.
Maybe bicycles, and motorized scooters are the new ‘market’ to get into.
Orlando.
My bill says 0.55571 for Base Energy per therm and another 1.25000 for "Fuel adjustment" per therm. Plus a customer fee of $8.00, 20% taxes, yada, yada.
Can any of you guys explain what a therm equals in terms of a monthly heating bill? I use propane and just locked in a cap of $2.52/gallon for this coming season (Oct-Mar). I use 1200 gallons/year, normally, and that will drop this year because 1) business sucks and accounts for about 350 gallons/season in my shop 2) we are putting a woodstove in the shop and 3) business sucks and accounts for perhaps 50/gallons a month in hot water in the house. I am still paying off last winter’s bill and a top-off fill in April at $2.30/gallon. The kicker is, if I use below 950 gallons, my rate per gallon for the following year will go up. I have already heard of $3/gallon propane for residential this month.
So, how many therms heat how many sq feet/supply how much hot water? I have friends on natural gas in a large Victorian. With half the house shut off during the winter, they paid around $500/month, but I think that might have included electricity, as well.
Just curious. We have zero opportunity to switch. I recall in the 70s, people switched to electricity and then, when oil (and therefore propane)went back down, the electric heat/hot water was very high, comparatively.
Eggzaktly!
Uh-huh. BOHICA.
If this guy is correct, his figures may help you out - http://wiki.answers.com/Q/A_natural_gas_thermal_unit_equals_what_equivalent_amount_of_liquid_propane_gas
We use about a therm a day of natural gas. That does our water heater, dryer and stove. So my bill for this past month was for 3200 cubic feet of natural gas which equals 34 therms.
Velocity. Rate of production. Can production keep up with demand? It’s not what is in the ground, which is about equal to a six mile cube.
<< Here comes price controls!
And it worked sooo well the last time they tried it. Guess everyone has forgotten that though. >>
I don’t think even the ‘rats will be dumb enough to try that again, by fixing prices either “at the pump” or up through the refining/processing/delivery chain.
(ASIDE: you never know about Obama, though - he’s an out-and-out Marxist at heart, with an elite superiority complex that might prompt him to “order the masses” to whatever he declares.)
There have been several discussion threads today about the rapidly-escalating price of petroleum and gasoline, but I’ve yet to see anyone speculate on what the ‘rats actually will attempt to DO about it, once they’re in power. And make no mistake about it - they WILL be in power if prices keep rising at the pump as they have the last few months. $6.50-7.00 gasoline isn’t going to help Mr. McCain or any other Republicans, regardless of B. Hussein’s skin color.
So, I’ll toss out MY ideas of what they will do to try to get things back under control again...
I sense that, at heart, at least SOME influential ‘rats understand the relationship between supplies, demand, and prices.
There is no “supply crisis” in the United States. There’s plenty of fuel to go around, if you have the $$$ to buy it. There _is_ the reality that currently, worldwide demand is growing faster than worldwide supplies can fulfill those demands, putting an upwards pressure on prices. This is NOT likely to change anytime soon. It may not change in our lifetimes. Indeed, price-pressures may accelerate upward in the next few years.
So, if a “crisis” exists here in the USA, it is one of _rising prices_, not supply. And there isn’t much we can do about worldwide demand. Notice, I said “worldwide” demand.
But I’m guessing the ‘rats will conclude that the action that must be taken to force prices downward is to REDUCE DOMESTIC DEMAND. What, then, will they do to accomplish this?
First, expect to see the 55mph limit re-imposed nationally. Actually, I can’t argue with this, because it is a proven fact that vehicles consume fuel more efficiently at 55 than at 65 or higher. This IS going to happen. The only question is when.
Next, the ‘rats are going to figure that if they can’t “tax prices down” with windfall profits on the oil producers (they will TRY this first, of course), they’ll force “big oil” to reduce prices by reducing “demand at the pump”. The only way to do this is to take actions that will effectively limit the SALES of gas at the pump.
We may again see the imposition of “odd/even” days for fuel purchases, based on license plates.
When that doesn’t work as planned, we may see the ‘rats take other steps to _force_ Americans to buy less fuel.
I would expect some kind of “mileage tax” based on miles driven. I believe this has ALREADY BEEN PROPOSED up in Oregon (proposed, not implemented). Vehicles will be checked either electronically, or, perhaps a once- or twice-yearly “checkstop” at designated locations, where state officials will record vehicle registrations and mileage - and then send the vehicle owner a tax bill. Drive less, get taxed less. And driving less cuts the demand for gas.
Eventually, they may resort to out-and-out gas rationing, based on monthly ration cards or the like. Again, their reasoning will be to limit the amount of fuel that can be purchased, with the expectation that lower demand will force the oil companies to lower retail prices.
What the ‘rats DON’T count on is the various ways in which sellers, processors, and buyers will fight back to thwart their attempts.
Nevertheless, I predict that these are some “solutions” that the democrats will try to impose upon Americans to “get prices down”.
Freepers, the flame suit is on. Feel free to shoot me down!
- John
The only reason the velocity is not there is because investors are not convinced this is a permanent price point. Lots of investors got burned the last time around when the price of oil tanked. Once they are convinced, projects will commence with a vengence - include coal-to-diesel, which IMO is the future of American transportation fuels.
Egads, too many variables. Is your house 100 years old and no insulation and lots of drafts, or is it brand new with R-25 in the walls and tighter than a frogs butt (which is water tight BTW)??? Is it exposed to the sun or is it surrounded by trees??? 45th parallel or Gulf Coast??? Sea level or 4,000' elevation???
1 therm is equal to 100,000 BTU's of heat, 1 gallon of propane has about 92,500 BTU's. I pay $1.05/therm and you're paying $2.30/gal of propane. My house is not very well insulated, 1,600 sq ft., very close to the 45th parallel, 500' above sea level, and during the coldest months I was using around 125-135 therms.... my highest gas bill this winter was $150ish. I also heat my water with gas, have a gas stove, but have an electric clothes dryer.
I replaced my 30+ year old clunker of a gas furnace in November with a 95% efficient, 2-stage, variable speed gas furnace and dropped my gas bill 33%. It would cost me twice as much money to heat my house with propane than with natural gas.
I tend to agree with the majority of what you said.
I do think the cost is eventually going to cut into demand. Part of the absurdity about it being a crisis. Must not hurt the majority too damn bad or they would quit/reduce buying.
The Red Rocker is going to have to get busy and update the song!
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