Posted on 05/19/2008 4:31:11 AM PDT by Clive
I always worry when I venture into the realm of analogy that the imperfection of all analogies will cause people to miss my point.
My point was -- and even if there's a law against scare tactics -- if there's a problem we have to address, of any kind, it's probably important to know the full range of possibilities that the problem could cause. Perhaps a medical condition with an uncertain prognosis is a better analogy. If you had that, shouldn't the doctor tell you everything that could happen, ranging from "no problem" to "agonizing, disfiguring , painful death"? To their credit, most doctors are honest, and they encourage hope and active participation of the patient in a course of treatment. (In the case of medical conditions, sometimes there isn't a surefire way to treat it, and sometimes risky unproven treatments are tried. And sometimes those work, and sometimes they don't. And sometimes they even cause more damage than doing nothing would. When facing uncertainty, nothing is certain. Does that mean doing nothing is always the right thing to do? I'd say the right thing to do is to get all the information you can, weigh risk vs. benefit, make a decision about a course of action based on those considerations, monitor the condition, make changes to the plan if necessary, etc.)
The way many skeptics seem to be addressing global warming is like making sure someone is really sick before considering any treatments at all.
I'm not sure where that would have fit. I've posted the standard radiative forcing diagram many times, and I acknowledge what the uncertainties could mean.
There'd still have to be more negative feedbacks, as yet unidentified, to add up to negative forcing. And its currently warming, so the "balance sheet" ought to be positive at this point in time. That doesn't mean further warming couldn't cause sufficient cloud cover change to reverse it. Research is ongoing on that, isn't it?
You refuse to acknowledge that the temperature data is being manipulated by the IPCC contributors to the point that it is dishonest.
All the temperature data? Modern or paleo? Every IPCC contributor involved with temperature data? Most of them? No, I won't acknowledge that, it's ridiculous. I'll acknowledge that there are flaws, sometimes significant, in some studies. I will further acknowledge that skeptics have overexploited and overemphasized these flaws for their own ends. I will also acknowledge that the skeptics rarely acknowledge when flawed studies have been supplanted by more recent, better, and more definitive results.
Deliberate dishonesty has to be definitively proven. I won't acknowledge such until it is.
You wont acknowledge that the only place that major global warming exists, and I mean their 5+F forecasts, is in the completely unreliable GCMs, which have no, and I mean NO, track record of success in reality.
I acknowledge, as would anyone following along, that the GCMs are modified to generate the full range of scenarios, and that as I stated before, the high end scenarios are unlikely.
As for no track record of success:
Climate models and their evaluation
FAQ 8.1 and the figure included is a nice summary.
I agree I expand the set of important scenarios to include those where CO2 might add some temp, but where the effects of that are benign or even beneficial.
My interpretation of current trends is that the globe is past the point of benign or beneficial, particularly when consideration of the rate of change is included in the evaluation.
The alarmists are very like a surgeon suggesting that you have some part of your body removed just in case it might be a problem later on, even though there is no strong reason to believe there will ever be a problem
I disagree (and I also already used a medical analogy in a different post). Your case is as if the body part was asymptomatic. More accurately, there are symptoms, but their potential severity is unclear, as is the course of treatment.
The difference is that I will include as possibilities that the bureaucratic IPCC policymakers have it all wrong, and that they ignore the much higher costs (economic, opportunity cost, technology, beneficial side effects, etc.) by their excessive focus on the disaster scenerios.
You have every right to do so. I in turn have the right to maintain that the IPCC has got it basically right, and that further warming at the current rate or an accelerated rate has very little up-side.
I'll give you a quick bottom line. I believe it's probably going to warm at least 2.5 C this century. I think summer Arctic ice will be absent by 2025. I believe that many countries/regions which rely on glacial runoff as their primary water supply will be facing significant water shortages by 2040, some areas sooner. I believe that the ongoing Australian drought is a harbinger of things to come for other central continent agricultural areas. I believe that by 2020, there will have been at least one massive, unprecedented, killer heat wave in the United States corresponding to one or two unprecedentedly warm summers, worse than the 1936 event.
Sorry for not being balanced because I believe those things will happen.
Excellent. Thanks for posting.
Note also that those who can sign in private do so, when their name is listed, but they can do it privately, rather than in public where the bullying pressure can be manipulated.
Another some tens of thousands of engineers would be willing to sign - if offered.
You’re welcome! Click my link to his web site to access even more of his excellent “speeches” on the same subject. bttt
http://www.crichton-official.com/
We’ve all experience blown-out tires, none of us has witnessed a 40 foot sea-level rise.
Weve all experience blown-out tires, none of us has witnessed a 40 foot sea-level rise.
Agreed. We can also model the deterioration of tires with incredible accuracy. We know that some number of people will get shot by drive-by gunners in ‘08. Do we wear helmets? Some things are such a long shot we don’t act on their likelihood even if the eventuality would be catastrophic.
The Post's series on scientists who buck the conventional wisdom on climate science. Here is the series so far:
Statistics needed -- The Deniers Part I
Warming is real -- and has benefits -- The Deniers Part II
The hurricane expert who stood up to UN junk science -- The Deniers Part III
Polar scientists on thin ice -- The Deniers Part IV
The original denier: into the cold -- The Deniers Part V
The sun moves climate change -- The Deniers Part VI
Will the sun cool us? -- The Deniers Part VII
The limits of predictability -- The Deniers Part VIII
Look to Mars for the truth on global warming -- The Deniers Part IX
Limited role for C02 -- the Deniers Part X
End the chill -- The Deniers Part XI
Clouded research -- The Deniers Part XII
Allegre's second thoughts -- The Deniers XIII
The heat's in the sun -- The Deniers XIV
Unsettled Science -- The Deniers XV
Bitten by the IPCC -- The Deniers XVI
Little ice age is still within us -- The Deniers XVII
Fighting climate 'fluff' -- The Deniers XVIII
Science, not politics -- The Deniers XIX
Gore's guru disagreed -- The Deniers XX
The ice-core man -- The Deniers XXI
Some restraint in Rome -- The Deniers XXII
Discounting logic -- The Deniers XXIII
Dire forecasts aren't new -- The Deniers XXIV
They call this a consensus? -- Part XXV
NASA chief Michael Griffin silenced - Part XXVI
Forget warming - beware the new ice age -- Part XXVII
Open mind sees climate clearly -- Part XXVIII
Models trump measurements -- Part XXIX
What global warming, Australian skeptic asks -- Part XXX
In the eye of the storm of global warming -- Part XXXI
From chaos, coherence -- Part XXXII
The aerosol man -- Part XXXIII
The Hot Trend is cool yachts -- Part XXXIV
You still need your parka in Antarctica -- Part XXXV
IPCC too blinkered and corrupt to save -- Part XXXVI
Why melting of ice sheets 'is impossible' -- Part XXXVII
Climate change by Jupiter -- Part XXXVIII
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/pages/climate-change-the-deniers.aspx
pinged on another thread...
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