[Marie2]

Any thoughts on how this might impact the California vote in November?

We will have a constitutional amendment on the ballot, defining marriage as between one man and one woman, on the November ballot.

Does it put California into play? Will enough conservatives turn up to vote for that amendment, and go ahead and vote for McCain (presumably)?

We voted 61% to define marriage as between one man and one woman nine years ago. It was a referendum, not a constitutional amendment. I think the constitutional amendment is going to pass.

If this has already been addressed, please forgive.

[Mr. Silverback]

Does it put California into play? Will enough conservatives turn up to vote for that amendment, and go ahead and vote for McCain (presumably)?

Not likely, according to data David Brooks from the NYT presented in early '05. Traditional marriage amendments passed overwhelmingly even in a couple of states that Bush lost in '04...Michigan and Oregon, IIRC.