New refineries won’t solve the problem. Crack spreads are already low, telling us that is not where the problem is. Inventories are near five year lows (that’s OECD inventories on a days supply basis) despite the high prices. Geology is trumping economics for now.
Rumor is that Russia’s production will decline over the next year. They were down in the first quarter, first time that happened in over a decade. They say things will ramp up later in the year. The Russians have been the only real source of non-opec production growth. If they do peak this year, my guess is we’ll see $200 this year.
We need to build a lot more nuke plants