Reserves have no impact on the market out a few years unless the facilities have been built to produce them. Production rate capacity.
The source of the pricing pressure is not OPEC production, oil company profits or levels of proved reserves. The pricing pressure is coming from the fact that the developing world (led by China and India) are developing ravenous appetites for oil that will rival our own within the next 25 years.
The production capacity rates have similar effect on the market as demand.
The current (and recent historical) levels of exploration and production have no hope of keeping up with that demand.
The recent historical levels have reserve growth exceeding demand growth. See post #40 again since 2007.
The Department of Energy disagrees with your assessment.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/ieoreftab_4.pdf
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/ieopol.pdf
Unfortunately oil exploration and production has turned into a world wide political football, and as with everything politicians touch it turns to sh#%. The politics prevents us from addressing the immediate needs and enacting logical solutions.
In this I greatly agree.
As a matter of fact they indicate historical trends of consumption greater than production for 1990 through 2005, though it is harder to gauge due to the fact that DOE omits the 2004 and 2005 consumption data, but includes it for the prouction data, makes it harder to compare apples to apples.
Was that intentional?