The tipping point may come when a Cuban/Chinese oil consortium floods the market with large quantities of newly drilled supply from over-the-horizon wells in the Florida Strait.
Thank God that the Chinese and Cubans are drilling off of the coast of Florida. The US certainly can’t.
Reserves 1/5 the size of the US (not counting places like ANWR and Florida Coasts) is not going to flood the market. It will help, but this a expected to be less than half the size ANWR.