German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

physorg ^ | 4/15/08

[BohDaThone]

An asteroid of the size and speed mentioned would basically go through the ocean (if it indeed hit the ocean) with enough force that it would :

a) vaporize a gazillion tons of sea water, meaning that all of the salt and other stuff in it would essentially be converted to dust at once; and

b) still hit the sea bottom with enough force to make a humongous crater and vaporize or eject stuff on the sea bottom probably all the way down to magma, which would also get ejected. So, certainly plenty enough "dust" no matter where on earth it hits.

I'm skeptical of the kid's calculations, as others have noted as to whether any deflection would increase or decrease the hit probability, but I agree that even the tiniest discrepancy could make a big difference.

[Onelifetogive]

I’m no expert, but I wonder if the path of the thing is what has most of the error built into it, but the position of it now and it’s speed are fairly well known.

Known now, but not after the impact with a satellite. Thet are saying that an impact would change its course or speed enough to make it hit earth in ~20 years. There HAS to be variation of more than a few hours in 20 years from an potential collision (at some angle) with a satellite of unknown size.

[kittymyrib]

Honest to Pete...are the scientists at NASA all chasing each other around the office, as our crack astronauts were? That is a staggering error, and someone should be canned for that one.

[Viking2002]

It's like a Saturday night Sci-Fi Channel movie: the gummint says 'move along, there's nothing to see here, it's all under control, blahblahblah....', then some snot-nosed school kid comes along and discovers WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!! AAAUUGGHHHH! AAUUGGHHHH! LOL :-)

They'd better get that movie made before April 13, 2029, or their ratings are gonna suck. LMAO

[dragnet2]

It would carve out a cavity in the Atlantic Ocean probably 10 miles wide, all the way to the ocean floor, causing tsunami's all over the planet, putting up 200 foot waves into the east coast, waves that would travel inland for miles.

Not to mention creating other sudden conditions like shock waves that would kill off most everything in a huge radius.

[KC Burke]

I would say one-in-450 is pretty well going to make at least page two in the time prior to the event.

Odds like that in airline flights would only mean 1.6 million dead...each year.

[#1CTYankee]

"Not to mention creating other sudden conditions like shock waves that would kill off most everything in a huge radius."

We can always hope it hits Mecca, a rock hitting a rock would seem like fate.

Let the radicals Islamistics suck on that!

[George from New England]

The kid missed the most important factor.

NASA needed to increase their budget and that alone accounts for the magnitudes of error that came out of the NASA calculations.

[AZLiberty]

If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.

Bah. Hitting an satellite will produce a (relatively) random deviation in the asteroid's orbit, with a small chance of increasing the collision probability and a larger chance of decreasing the collision probability.

[George from New England]

“will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.”

This sets up a move from the coast to an inland protected site. If it was to hit the Pacific they might have to stay right in Florida. Gotta build all new place you know!

[libsrscum]

Must be a HELL OF A BIG SATELLITE to change the orbit of a "ball of iron and iridium 1049 feet wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes."

Color me skeptical.

[George from New England]

The earlier you defect its course the greater the long term change. If we act soon, by 2036 it should be all the way into another solar system. But if NASA is involved — we’re all doomed.

[my_pointy_head_is_sharp]

A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth

Can we put this kid to work on the global warming hype?

[PTBAA]

I don’t believe and asteroid reported to have a mass of 200 billion tons could have its trajectory significantly altered by something with the mass of a satellite. Wouldn’t one also need to know the exact vector of intersection with a satellite before one could predict a resultant direction?

[dragnet2]

Must be a HELL OF A BIG SATELLITE to change the orbit

It's not just the size of the satellites, but the fact that they travel at almost 2 miles a second.

The energy from an impact would be great.

Think of the impact that a very small bullet, like a .300 Win, has on a large elephant.

[Merta]

That is why we took our concept of public education from the German Prussian School System ::sigh::

Maybe the reward for the German schoolboy should be a career working for NASA or some such. But yeah, instead of diddling with asteroid predictions why not save the trees? Oh and the animals?

Dumbing down, we are all dumbing down. Then again this is what you would expect from an office run by a government, so easy a kid can outperform it. Maybe we should also let the scientist go on Are You Smarter Than a 13 Year Old German kid?.

[huldah1776]

I was skeptical of the kid, too, but that’s because I love Hubble. Anyone know if this could be when the days are shortened by 1/3 prophesied in Revelation? I was wondering if it was the spin of the earth (would it go faster) or if was due to less sunlight(longer nights)?

[kingattax]

NASA ain’t what it used to be.

it's a good thing the astronauts on apollo 13 didn't have to depend on the NASA of today to get them back to earth safely

[ThomasThomas]

“If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.”

A satellite of any size?

Why would hitting a satellite only deflect toward the earth a not away?

Will we survive global warming to care?

[ThomasThomas]

NASA still dose some cool stuff.