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To: HawaiianGecko
Since you are relying upon data from the BEA and they rely upon the NBER, is there a conclusion to be reached here?

I took notice of Lott's non-NBER recession dates too. I might have just pointed them out had other not already done so.

The NBER is just a group of people offering an opinion. I am sure the original idea was to have a non-partisan group end arguments between the administration and the party not in the White House on when we had a recession. In much of the past it was not that big a deal. Recessions or contraction were deep and long enough to leave little room for argument. Fortunately we have made progress in stabilizing the economy, but that leads to argument about was there a recession in periods like 2000-2001 or not.

Of course at one time the MSM prided themselves in objectivity. They have thrown that out the window. At one time American universities were proud not to be politicized like say those in South America, but alas that to is out the window. To me that means products of the academy like the NBER calls of recession are now more suspect than in the past. The people at the NBER live in an environment where they will be pestered less and treated better if they dont call a recession as having started in during the last half year of the Clinton administration. Economists study and believe people follow incentive and the NBER maybe was in this case. The NBER may have taken a baby step on that slippery slope that the MSM and much of the academy have slid well down before them. For the sake of my profession, I hope they correct this and maybe even go back and revise the dates of that recession.

I cannot match your knowledge of this subject as you are a professional economist living and breathing this type of information while I am not, but I'm also not fully illiterate, do have post graduate degrees and can read. It seems to me that the reason an entity such as NBER has it's provenance is precisely so one has somewhere to look for answers. Whether they are East coast, West coast, ivy league or hillbilly doesn't matter as long as they are consistent and I know their bias. Personally I think they exist to keep bloggers from revising history.

If I have an advantage in this, it is that I know everyone involved is just a person offering an opinion. John Lott is just a guy who was an attendee at two week seminar I once went to. The guys at the NBER are just guys too. They are just other people who went to grad school and became professional economist. [Heck I was once in a session at some economics meetings and in late wanders Milton Friedman who sat in the seat behind me, listen to a paper and left.] So I recognize they made a call and I recognize that Lott is differing with them as is his right. The data suggest neither can claim the other is completely all wet on their call.

I just don't want to wind up on Jeopardy some day and miss that econ daily double about the 2000 recession simply because an article from John Lott, Jr. stuck in my mind.

Alas the correct answer on Jeopardy is always the standard answer. So if the answer is He was the worst dictator of the 20th Century and they want Who was Adolph Hitler, it is does not matter if you or I or John Lott thinks it was Mao or Stalin. Sometime you can be more informed than Jeopardy or Trivial Pursuit, ie Althea Gibson.

I also agree with your eyebrows rising over the strangeness of 1st qtr 2001 negative growth not being mentioned. However, I had a multi-day debate with my son's room mate in the summer of 2002 over this very subject and the data at the time didn't reflect Q1-2001 being negative. I'm sure that is a revision as I may not remember the exact numbers, but I certainly would have remembered a negative quarter as it would have simply killed my argument.

As you know, there are revisions to the GDP growth data. I did check and find a contemporaneous source showing no negative GDP until 2001:Q3, 2000:Q3 and 2001:Q1 must be due to revisions. I wonder what will happen to the 0.6 percent from the 2007:Q4? BTW, in 2007:Q1 also came in at 0.6, yet 2007:Q2 and 2007:Q3 were strong growth quarters.
33 posted on 04/01/2008 11:39:46 PM PDT by JLS
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To: JLS
there are revisions to the GDP growth data. I did check and find a contemporaneous source showing no negative GDP until 2001:Q3, 2000:Q3 and 2001:Q1 must be due to revisions.
I clearly recall that some "rosy scenario" numbers came out of the Clinton Commerce Department in mid-2000 which got revised downward after the election, if not before.

38 posted on 04/02/2008 3:29:05 AM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion (The Democratic Party is only a front for the political establishment in America - Big Journalism.)
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To: JLS; ConservativeMind; garyhope; Obadiah; Mind-numbed Robot; Zacs Mom; A.Hun; johnny7; ...
Of course at one time the MSM prided themselves in objectivity. They have thrown that out the window.
The "MSM" actually is IMHO better characterized as "Big Journalism." Journalism, and not fictional movies or TV dramas, has an obligation to be objective.

Of course it is nonsense to purport to be objective, but journalism has the obligation nonetheless because journalism is a monopoly. There are of course many "different" news outlets, some of which actually were strongly independent in the distant past - but in reality the telegraph and the Associated Press (1848) actually created journalism as we have known it all our lives.

There were of course newspapers in the Founding Era, but they had no sources which were not in principle available to the general public without reading a newspaper. Newspapers were highly opinionated; for example Hamilton and Jefferson waged their partisan battles by sponsoring newspapers to promote their own ideas and criticize each other's ideas. Some newspapers published weekly, and some had no deadline at all and went to press when the printer was good and ready.

That is mentioned diffidently in encyclopedias today with embarrassment, since it is not politically correct to recognize that no one is objective, and that applies to the Associated Press and the organs which it absorbed in the Nineteenth Century. The claim of journalistic objectivity traces back to the AP's response to criticism of the AP's role in monopolizing the use of the telegraph to transmit news. The AP systematically insinuated itself into the business model of any telegraph line, along with the telegraph's more fundamental role in providing command, control, and communication for the railroad as its first priority, in exchange for the railroad's provision of the right of way needed to run the wire.

Whereas in the Founding Era the newspapers were primarily ideosincratic, florid opinion journals which were independent of each other and in slow communication with each other, the Associated Press transformed the newspaper business into journalism - the reporting of local incidents (available to local citizenry independently) but also, and especially, the reporting of incidents from distant places of which the local citizenry could independently learn only after a long delay. Suddenly the local newspapers across the country were cooperating through the medium of the Associated Press, and carrying rewrites of each others' stories with little delay. Suddenly the newspapers needed each other - and the idea of substantive ideological competition between newspapers became a fiction. Suddenly newspapers had a gusher of stories on the AP wire, and you weren't a newspaper unless you published daily. Newspapers segregated their editorial opinions into explicit editorial pages, positioning the rest of the paper as being "objective." Whereas in prior times of actual competition individual newspapers would have ridiculed the idea that any other newspaper was objective, suddenly the business model of every paper depended on the perception that all newspapers were objective.

Obviously the fact that journalists have a need to convince us that journalism is objective, and the fact that they have, since the memory of living man runneth not to the contrary, had the opportunity to propagandize the public with the idea that journalism is objective, is a better argument that the claims of journalistic objectivity are propaganda rather than that journalists are or ever in the past actually have been objective. Very well - but if journalism is not objective, it should have an identifiable perspective - and it does.

The perspective of journalism is that journalism is more important than it actually is. Journalism inherently constitutes criticism and second guessing of those who actually do things.  That is the planted axiom of the well-known dictum of journalism: If it bleeds, it leads. Journalists are on the lookout for bad news. They will therefore put a negative spin on whatever news comes across the transom - and that makes them functionally cynical about the people who are trying to get things done. And that has predictable political consequences:

There is no more unhealthy being, no man less worthy of respect, than he who either really holds, or feigns to hold, an attitude of sneering disbelief toward all that is great and lofty, whether in achievement or in that noble effort which, even if it fails, comes to second achievement. A cynical habit of thought and speech, a readiness to criticise work which the critic himself never tries to perform, an intellectual aloofness which will not accept contact with life's realities - all these are marks, not as the possessor would fain to think, of superiority but of weakness. They mark the men unfit to bear their part painfully in the stern strife of living, who seek, in the affection of contempt for the achievements of others, to hide from others and from themselves in their own weakness. The rôle is easy; there is none easier, save only the rôle of the man who sneers alike at both criticism and performance.

It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds . . . Theodore Roosevelt

Journalists systematically promote critics over people who commit to actual action; they are cynical about working to a bottom line. They are cynical about the police because the police have to decide to take action, risking charges of police brutality if they act or of laxness if they do not act in a particular situation. Ditto for the military. They are cynical about the businessman, criticizing him pollution if he produces, and for inadequate supply (high prices) if he does not produce enough - and sometimes for both simultaneously. In short the attitudes which are natural to the journalist are attitudes which are associated with the political left.

The Market for Conservative-Based News


42 posted on 04/02/2008 5:15:01 AM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion (The Democratic Party is only a front for the political establishment in America - Big Journalism.)
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