Posted on 03/07/2008 5:37:01 PM PST by Kaslin
That's a tough question. But it's clear that the number of key economic indicators that are either getting weaker or shrinking outright has grown, while those showing healthy growth are diminishing.
We have an indicator of our own that we look at once in a while. We call it the monthly momentum index, and it's pretty simple: We add the year-over-year change in nonfarm private payroll jobs to the year-over-year change in aggregate hours worked.
Over the years it's been a good monthly proxy for the overall economy. If that's still the case, trouble lies ahead. Never has the index fallen as low as it is today — a bit above 1.5 — for more than a month without a recession. So if we had a bet to make, it would be just that.
Even the White House is sounding a bit glum. "We have definitely downgraded our forecast for this quarter," Edward Lazear, head of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, said after the release of the employment numbers. "We don't know whether it will be negative or not."
If we do enter a recession, what can be done about it?
(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...
I just went from contractor status (4 years) to full time employee status with a 15% pay raise. Yay Me!
***
The cool thing about Dow 10,000 hats is that they never seem to go out of style.
If there were such a thing as Dow 8,000 hats, I'd be tempted to say, "dust 'em off, " too.
I was an independent contractor for 4 years until I got hired full time a year ago. I thought I had it made. Then my new company hired a new CEO who decided to shed 11 of 14 business unit. I’m part of one of the BUs getting sold off. The immediate future isn’t very bright, I fear.
The company I joined hired a new CEO 2 years ago and has been growing quite nicely. Having the flexibility to move around within the organization is far less stressful than waiting to see if my contract would be renewed every 6 months for one specific job.
You went from contractor to employee and got raise? Wow! Don’t see that too often.
Exactly. Especially when America is on the verge of the next great depression!
I had more money than I knew what to do with during the Carter recession.
What type of contractor you would be? I am an electrical contractor, and I doubt I could make the money I make as an employee. I know this ‘cause I write the checks for my employee’s.
Oddly enough, I am in the outsource happy IT industry. I am one of the lucky ones.
B>I don’t think we’re headed into a recession. But there’s no question we’re in a slow down and that’s why we acted with over $150 billion worth of pro-growth economic incentives, mainly money going into the hands of our consumers... The purpose is to encourage our consumers - to give ‘em money - to help deal with the adverse effect of the decline in housing values.</b>~~President George W. Bush, Feb 28, 2008
Take a step back and look; Our “downturns” “recessions” are boomtimes compared to every day life in most of the world. Many of our citizens can’t tell you when we’re in a recession. They’re too busy living.
“If we do enter a recession, what can be done about it?”
Not much. And I doubt that Ben Bernanke cares what anyone on this forum thinks. The more important question is: how will my family prosper in spite of it?
Or maybe
“Economic Darkness Before The Real Darkness?”
I am not afraid of recession....I am in a recession proof job.....but what about this talk of DEPRESSION?.......that is what I fear.....
Not to worry. Depression can be a piece of cake if you get the right pills ;-)
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