I rather doubt that Chavez has the ability to send a good chunk of his mobile troops to the border & keep them there, supplied. Still, initiating hostilities would increase the supply requirements several fold. So what could be up?
Consider that Chavez is very afraid of a coup. He puts the troops on the border to keep them outta Dodge.
Probably right on the money! Hugo knows some young Captain is plotting, just the way he did. He just doesn't know which one! Thus, get em out of town, and rattle sabres at the Colombian boogie man at the same time.