Reality check for Hugo Chavez: The regular Colombian army is considerably larger than the Venezuelan army, although the Venezuelan army seems better armed and the Venezuelan air force, on paper, has more advanced aircraft. A close look at the terrain and supply lines, however, makes it unlikely that Venezuela can conquer much Colombian territory, much less march their troops all the way to Bogota, Colombia’s capital, which is some 200 miles, at a minimum, from the Venezuelan border. Caracas, on the other hand, is _400_ miles from the Colombian border. And those are both air miles.
Now, there is a major city that Chavez could attack and attempt to occupy that is right on the border. Cucuta, with a million people. The closest major Colombian forces are at Bucaramanga, HQ for the second division, although the 30th brigade of this division is based in Cucuta. The 30th brigade has 2 infantry and one cavalry battalion and a couple of counter-insurgency/force protection battalions. The fifth brigade at Bucaramanga could reinforce Cucuta with another 3 infantry battalions, an artillery battalion, and an engineer battalion. Bucaramanga is about 70 miles from Cucuta. In addition, the second division has a couple of special forces battalions it could use and about 8 counter-insurgency battalions in the 5th and 15th mobile brigades.
Url for 2nd division order of battle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Segunda_division_ejercito_de_Colombia.png
Nearest mechanized Colombian forces are in Baranquilla, 257 miles northwest of Cucuta, and home to the 2nd mechanized brigade of the first division. 2nd mech brigade has 2 mechanized battalions and 1 mountain infantry battalion available to reinforce Cucuta.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Primera_division_ejercito_de_Colombia.png
So first major battle between Colombia and Venezuela is likely to be the city of Cucuta with major participation by the 2nd division of Colombia’s armed forces.
good post....Cucuta would be the most likely target but beyond Cucuta is tuff.
i think it’s abour rainy season there right now
I think those Divisions may be dispersed to protect the Oil Industries in the region from the FARC. In particular the Cano Limon fields.
If they need to regroup they leave the Oil fields unprotected and that may be Chavez’s plan.
