Posted on 03/01/2008 3:04:41 PM PST by Oshkalaboomboom
John McCain could officially wrap up the Republican presidential nomination Tuesday, and he'll celebrate in Atlanta on Thursday.
As the GOP establishment in Georgia begins to align behind the presumptive nominee, trouble still lingers among some conservative voters who doubt McCain's bona fides.
Those skeptical voters ultimately could determine McCain's fate. Do they stay home? Do they vote Democrat instead?
Tom Nesbitt is not sure what he's going to do. A retired postal worker from Turner County, the 66-year-old Republican voter said he's "disgusted" with his party in general and McCain in particular.
"I have not yet decided whether I will, at the last moment, vote for McCain, sit this one out or, out of complete disgust for the Republican Party's lack of consideration, vote for another candidate," Nesbitt said.
McCain, an Arizona senator, is expected to pass the delegate threshold to secure the nomination after Tuesday's primaries in Ohio and Texas. Although former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee remains in the race, McCain has a lock on the top slot on the ticket.
Huckabee won Georgia's Feb. 5 primary, in part because of his strength among evangelical voters, many of whom look at McCain with dismay.
Still, some say conservatives' ire toward McCain has been exaggerated and that he has been unfairly painted as a moderate or liberal by the media or by those who simply don't like him.
In Georgia, at least, it seems unlikely that apathy among conservatives toward McCain could trigger a Democratic victory. Georgia last went for a Democrat for president in 1992 and has been trending Republican ever since.
Besides history, McCain has other reasons for optimism in Georgia.
First is Thursday's $1,000-a-plate reception at the Westin Buckhead with host Gov. Sonny Perdue, who did not endorse a candidate in the primary. Joining Perdue on the host committee are nearly every top elected Republican in the state, including Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, who also did not endorse in the primary, and House Speaker Glenn Richardson (R-Hiram), who backed McCain after first choice Rudy Giuilani dropped out.
McCain also has the support of Johnny Isakson and Saxby Chambliss. The state's two Republican U.S. senators endorsed their Senate colleague late in the primary campaign, while most U.S. House members went for Huckabee or Mitt Romney. Chambliss is on the ballot in November, too, and it will benefit him to have a strong presidential candidate above him, so Chambliss will be expected to work to bring conservatives back into the GOP fold.
Alec Poitevint, who led McCain's Georgia campaign, said there's no question the GOP will unite behind McCain.
"Absolutely," Poitevint said, "he's a proven leader in a difficult time. And he's the right man to be president now, and I think our people in Georgia understand that."
The primary season is over, he said, and Republicans typically put aside their differences for the good of the party in November.
Shawn Davis, who led Huckabee's Georgia campaign, agrees.
Huckabee will eventually give way, Davis said, and the Arkansan's supporters will back the nominee.
"We believe to win in November it's imperative to have a conservative on the ticket," Davis said. "Once Governor Huckabee releases his 51 delegates to McCain, presumably after his last stand in Texas (on Tuesday), you will see all Georgia Republicans unite strongly behind John McCain."
Some conservatives' anger toward McCain lingers.
A recent report from the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life found that 78 percent of white, born-again Protestants voted for George W. Bush over Democrat John Kerry in 2004. But, wrote John Green, Pew's senior fellow in religion and American politics, McCain "may have some trouble achieving that level of support from white evangelicals given that a majority of them preferred other candidates in the primaries."
If the race is close, a drop in support from such a key component of the Republican base could be damaging.
Exit polls taken from the Georgia primary give McCain reason for concern. He lost badly to Huckabee, and in some cases to third-place finisher Romney, among those who identified themselves as either somewhat conservative or very conservative. Among Republican voters who said they chose a candidate who shares their values, McCain got 15 percent, compared with 51 percent for Huckabee and 31 percent for Romney.
Don Neunaber, a physical therapist in Lilburn, looks at his choices in November and is conflicted.
"I haven't yet decided whether I can vote for McCain," Neunaber said. Note the use of the word "can." It's not "whether I will vote" for McCain. It's "whether I can" vote for him. That difference indicates a deeper, more personal level of frustration.
Neunaber finds the choice excruciating.
"I am faced with a real dilemma as a Republican," he said. "I am stuck between adversaries."
Such strong feelings stem from a series of frustrations and perceived betrayals. Neunaber specifically mentioned McCain's support for the failed immigration bill that many conservatives considered amnesty for illegal immigrants.
In the face of loud and angry response from many voters, McCain backed off his support for the measure. But, Neunaber said, McCain later told a television interviewer that he would sign a similar bill if elected president.
"He's playing to conservatives, trying to move to the conservative side, but he's not that much of a conservative when it comes down to it," Neunaber said.
Others criticize McCain for his sponsorship of campaign finance reform they say stifles the political power of pro-family groups. Others, such as the powerful Club for Growth, don't like his economic policies.
Helen Slater of Marietta, a secretary at Lockheed Martin Corp., voted for Romney in the Feb. 5 Georgia primary. Romney dropped out shortly after finishing third here. Slater will vote for McCain in November.
"Although he certainly is not my choice for the Republican nominee, I still feel like he is the lesser of three evils," she said, noting that the other two "evils" would be Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
Jim Beck, chairman of the Georgia Christian Coalition, said more and more Republicans displeased with McCain will come to the conclusion that McCain is the best option available to them.
"You're already seeing it," Beck said. "Based on our e-mail traffic, some Huckabee people are waiting (to publicly back McCain) out of respect for him. At the end of the day, you have to pick between imperfect people."
McCain was not Beck's first choice. That becomes less important in November, he said.
"Look at the alternative," he said.
Plus, Beck said, McCain could gain independents and moderates to offset any loss of conservatives.
"McCain offers appeal to swing voters that would not have been the case with Huckabee or Romney," Beck said.
In the end, however, "I don't think McCain will turn off the base," Beck said.
Nesbitt, the Turner County Republican, would disagree.
"I am totally disgusted with them all, and have decided to call myself an independent, and will think twice before ever voting Republican again," he said.
In fact the ACLU lawyer Ginsburg is the most liberal socialist ever appointed to SCOTUS.
Trust McCain?? LOL!
Sure, when he resigns his Senate office.
“What part of Close Gitmo don’t you understand?”
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Big difference between closing Gitmo and affording terrorist habeas corpus rights. McCain has defended the use of military tribunals to try the prisoners there.
LOL! You have no idea just how ridiculous you sound.
As these posts evolve, you move farther and farther into Saint McCainhood, knighting him Sir John in his new found infallibility on all matters, past and present, as you reduce the argument to the absurd.
In fact, your statement is 100% WRONG.
Closing GITMO is a both a basic issue and a canard of the most loony leftists in this country today.
My state didn’t even vote until McCain was nominated as another poster noted...we primaries in liberal states.”
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If you want to blame the primary schedule for McCain’s lead, then go right ahead. The order of state primaries is not McCain’s doing. Having Iowa and New Hampshire go first, is the way it been for a long time and something other conservatives have ‘overcome’ many times.
My point was that if you want a more conservative candidate, then get out there and work for their victory. It amazes me how so many on this forum complain about McCain but never did anything to help the candidate they preferred except post their opinions on FR.
Even though your state didn’t vote “until McCain was nominated,” that does not prevent you from volunteering to help the candidate you prefer. You don’t even need to take time out of your schedule to go to Iowa, or one of the other early states to help out like some of us did. I know that both candidates I supported (Thompson & Romney) provided call lists and scripts that you could use to help the candidate.
Those that did nothing but post complaints on FR are ‘whistling in the dark’.
“Most times when there were no rising stars, the vote was split and we ended up with liberal unelectable candidates like McCain. Reform the primary system.”
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If you want the primary system reformed then you should work to get it ‘reformed’. If you feel that just posting your complaints on FR will get it done then I think you will be sorely disappointed.
“Really, then what happened after the Gingrich victories. I didn’t see a whole lot of shifting toward the base.”
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Too bad you missed it. In 1994, we had a Democrat in the White House during the “Gingrich victories” and a Democratic majority in the Senate. By 2004, not only did we have a Republican in the White House, we had Republican majorities in both Houses of Congress.
By losing in 2006 we now have seen a shifting back toward the center, which as I said is typical when one party loses.
“Yeah, Obama is young...he might still come around. Funny, I have seen Obama reaching out to Republican/conservative voters more than McCain.”
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I don’t think you’re going to pursuade very many people who actually pay attention to what’s going on, with that nonsense. You must not have been listening very closely to what Obama has been saying. He has a 100% liberal voting record and has been leaning even further left during the campaign.
“A primary isn’t a ‘lot in life’, it’s part of the political process and was deliberately manipulated in order to field a RINO. Well the country club GOP got their way”
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I see you believe in conspiracy theories. Are you also a ‘9/11 Truther’?
As stated previously, having Iowa and New Hampshire go first, is the way it been for a long time and something other conservatives have ‘overcome’ many times. Each state sets their date for their primary, as long as it does not interfere with Iowa & NH going first. It’s not a conspiracy.
You don’t have to wait until your state votes in order to affect the outcome. You can still volunteer to help your candidate during the early primaries. However, it appears that you would rather complain.
“Winning political parties tend to shift further toward their base.”
> Care to give some examples concerning the GOP that would support your assertion?
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There are many examples, but you don’t have to go back very far. After Republican victories in 1998, 2000 & 2002, the Republican candidate won in 2000 & 2004 using Karl Rove’s strategy of appealing to the base.
On the other hand, after the 2006 elections in which the Republicans lost, the party shifted back to the center; we now have a moderate candidate for President.
“You have no idea just how ridiculous you sound.”
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Well because you say it’s so it must be true. On the other hand perhaps you would like to offer some evidence for your claim.
John McCain has supported military tribunals for Gitmo prisoners. His position is not to give them habeas corpus rights, but to try them in military courts. You don’t need Gitmo to do that.
Personnally I don’t think we need to close Gitmo, but I also don’t think we need Gitmo in order to try them in military courts. For some reason you assume that we do. Is there some legal precedent you want to cite, or do you think we should just take your word on that?
“I may help Obama get elected... short term pain, long term gain for Conservatism in America.”
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Personally I doubt that you will. Your posts suggests that you’re more of the ‘complainer’ type than the ‘doer’ type. However, I would love to be proven wrong. Please share with us the candidate you supported during this primary election season and what you did to “help (them) get elected” (other than posting you opinions on FR).
Then why are you guys so intent on forcing folks that don't like McCain into line?
...”why are you guys so intent on forcing folks that don’t like McCain into line?”
Force is such a strong word...Speaking of which (sort of), could it be that this election depends on which side perpetrates the most effective level or elvels of fraud?
:...level or elvels...”
level or levels...
I live in Indiana, our primary isn’t until May 6th.
Well I should have should have said it a little different.
This Conservative Republican is disgusted with the crybabies that call themselves conservative but decide not to vote!
So I'll be waiting to see what VIABLE alternative you have.
Not much of one I would wager.
Let me see, you refer to McCain and McAmnesty then ask me why I am calling names? Geez!
How little ammunition I have? Understand I am not trying to convince you to vote for McCain, I might as well try to convince a rock! No I am venting my opinion of the minority that have the opinion you have and letting you know that you have no reason to consider yourself the base of the party! The base doesn't bale out as you are apparently going to do.
As to your last statement"strengthen the desire of the base to not vote at all." defies reason. As I said no one who is the base will not vote. Crybabies take that route.
It's a beautiful day here in Western N. Carolina and I have to get ready for church and go out and enjoy my day.
I hope you can do the same.
“Newbie McCainiacs lecturing conservatives on every thread.”
I was away from Freep for awhile and it does seem to have changed a bit. My instincts tell me that some of the Clinton Youth have developed into full blown poseurs or as they used say- “Poser!”
You give me way to much credit. I think the people you say I have insulted have pretty much made up their minds to bale out.
Besides my so called insults are just a mild critique of some poor ideas.
All this comment needs in order to be really, truly complete is a bright orange wig and big, floppy shoes.
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