I doubt that the "demographic winter" portends economic collapse or social deterioration . . .
Bailey apparently doesn't realize that modern welfare states can't function without a large pool of workers who pay the taxes that finance the entitlements that these states hand out to people who don't work. As the birthrate declines, the population ages; the pool of workers shrinks as the pool of retirees increases. This kind of situation cannot continue indefinitely.
I'd wager that Bailey does know all this. What you might not realize is that Bailey does not advocate a welfare state, but probably rather a state rolled back to its constitutional limits... in other words, not a welfare state.