If McCain is elected (and he has a good chance) he will redefine conservatism by moving it leftward. In 2012 or 2016, true conservative candidates will be considered dangerous extremists. I’ll give you an example of how this process works by invoking another Arizona politician: Barry Goldwater.
In his latter years, Goldwater came out strongly for abortion and gay “rights”, and against the Christian right. The media had hated Goldwater’s guts for thirty years, but when he began taking these stances that were more in line with the media’s beliefs, they saw an opening. They heaped praise on Goldwater and declared that a “true conservative” would be “tolerant” and “open-minded” toward abortion and homosexuality, and would be horrified by traditional values proponents. We suddenly heard the term “Barry Goldwater conservative” being coined, and we were told that the “extreme right” had stolen the GOP from great men like Goldwater and moved the party to the outer fringes.
It had an impact, and it frightened a lot of Republicans. It’s why the GOP today seems scared to even make an issue out of same-sex “marriage”, even though huge majorities of the public clearly hold a conservative stance on that issue (as we’ve seen in referenda results).
And Goldwater was a declining, aging man who had left office already. Imagine if we have a Republican president who openly supports amnesty, opposes pro-life and pro-normal marriage constitutional amendments, supports government controls on speech, supports the whole global warming agenda, wants to reign in our ability to fight terrorists, wants to close Gitmo and bring terrorists onto continental soil as non-combatants, and so forth.
In no time the term “John McCain conservative” will be part of the lexicon. Any conservative taking a position to the right of McCain will be marginalized as an extremist. The Democrats McCain works with on all those issues will, via the same process, be cast as “moderates”.
George Bush’s support for amnesty has already had a huge negative impact. Few conservatives have the nerve to make an issue out of it because they know they’ll be called a racist and a bigot. Bush himself has used such terms to describe them. Imagine trying to oppose amnesty if the leading GOP proponent of it becomes president. McCain is more likely to pass amnesty than either Hillary or Obama because the GOP will dig in to oppose it with a ‘Rat in the White House. But McCain will have a shot at passing it with increased Democrat majorities in Congress, especially after the 2010 mid-terms.
Speaking of which, if McCain is elected, the Democrats will sweep the 2010 mid-terms and in 2012 a radical Obama type Democrat will win and this time he’ll sweep huge Democrat majorities into Congress with him.
A McCain defeat will be hard to live with for a couple of years, because a leftist ‘Rat will win, but conservatives can regroup, retake the party from the Democrat wannabes, and rally as they did in 1980 and 1994. A McCain win likely means amnesty will pass, and millions and millions of new Democrat voters will be added to the voting rolls, locking the Democrats in as the majority party in perpetuity.
I agree. Reason will not work however, but I think you have given it an admirable shot. Well done.