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To: wideawake

I believe your assessment of China is a decade out of date.

And while their economy is dependent on exports, they are still a slave nation and in control. The rest of the world depends more on Chinese goods to keep them going than China does on exporting them.


50 posted on 02/22/2008 7:07:36 AM PST by the gillman@blacklagoon.com (And close the damned borders!)
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To: the gillman@blacklagoon.com
I believe your assessment of China is a decade out of date.

To the contrary, it is up to the moment.

China's demographic decline was only hinted at 10 years ago. The hard numbers today are clear: the ratio of women of childbearing age in China has shifted from 51% of the population to 46% - a ratio historically unprecedented in any population of significant size.

The ratio of under-15s to over-15s in China will drop below 20% in a couple of years - China will have a smaller ratio of children than America.

The ratio of over-65s will soar astronomically over the next decade.

The only reason why the average Chinese today is slightly younger than the average American is because Americans live 6 years longer than Chinese people do.

And while their economy is dependent on exports, they are still a slave nation and in control.

Being a slave nation is not a long-term advantage. I point to the example of the Soviet Union, Cuba, North Korea, Vietnam, etc.

The rest of the world depends more on Chinese goods to keep them going than China does on exporting them.

Absolutely false.

If the rest of the world collectively decided to pay 1.25% more of its disposable, after-tax income on household goods and appliances in order to avoid Chinese goods, China's economy would collapse and the rest of the world's economy would not be noticeably affected.

Plenty of US retailers have switched to sourcing more expensive German toys and drastically reduced their inventory of Chinese ones. The Chinese toy industry is now experiencing enormous layoffs, while US toy retailers had a solid, if unexciting, holiday season.

The big picture: Exports are almost 25% of the Chinese economy - despite the fact that they have four times as many domestic consumers as the USA.

Exports are only 8% of the US economy - our domestic market on a per-citizen basis is eight times larger than China's, despite China's almost 10$ annualized growth over the past decade.

And China will never grow at that rate in any decade ever again.

61 posted on 02/22/2008 7:35:56 AM PST by wideawake (Why is it that those who call themselves Constitutionalists know the least about the Constitution?)
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