Posted on 02/22/2008 5:57:24 AM PST by jhpigott
Russia's ambassador to Nato, Dmitry Rogozin, has warned that Russia could use military force if the Kosovo independence dispute escalates. "If the EU develops a unified position or if Nato exceeds its mandate set by the UN, then these organisations will be in conflict with the UN," he said.
In that case Russia would "proceed on the basis that in order to be respected we need to use brute force", he said.
Many EU members have recognised Kosovo, but several oppose recognition.
Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, backs Serbia, which has condemned the independence declaration issued by the Kosovo parliament on 17 February.
On Tuesday members of the Serb minority in Kosovo attacked two border posts staffed by UN personnel and Kosovo police.
The violence led the Nato troops in Kosovo - known as K-For - to reinforce the border with Serbia.
Kosovo's majority ethnic Albanians are following a plan drawn up by UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari for "supervised independence", which was rejected by Serbia.
The EU will soon deploy 2,000 officials to strengthen law and order in Kosovo, which has a population of about two million. Russia argues that the mission has no legal basis.
We would not wage nuclear war over Kosovo ... so there is really no annihilation risk here.
That said, Russia’s military options are limited. Putin could put in airborne troops pretty easily, but that’s about it ... and they would have no aircover as they have little basing options for their warplanes.
Now, Russian airborne troops on the Serb / Kosovo border would still freak out alot of Western politicians ... and may be enough to cause them to blink and back down, so who knows.
Russia does have some leverage, though, in it’s energy resources and what it supplies to Europe. We’ll see if that card gets brought up in the near term.
You’re right, clinton was the one to start this. But he’s just keeping the tradition alive. Like he himself said; Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton.
They did in 1914, and that led to the fall of the Romanovs. Historically, the Russians have always supported the Serbs, much like we have with some of our past conquests.
I wouldn't look for direct intervention, but an insurgent campaign to disrupt Kosovo.
i agree, the risk of direct conflict is limited.
That being said, if Russia were going to fight a conventional war with NATO - this would be as good as it gets for them. This is their backyard and the logistics train would be much shorter for them, than us.
Putin does have some leverage here and could easily enough move some airborne troops into Serbia. I doubt he has the gumption to try to insert them directly into Pristina, although Yeltsin pulled that off back at the end of the Kosovo bombing campaign.
Huh?
WWII? WWII? A little dated arguement
We’re allies w/ Japan, Germany and Italy
Even the Cold War.
We’re in NATO w/Bulgaria, Czech Rep, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Rumania, Slovakia & Slovenia.
Time to wake up an smell the history books.
I guess that’s one advantage of a land-locked country.
The Russians are on the right side of this issue and President Bush is in the wrong.
Haven’t Clinton and Bush used our military to kill enough Serbs?
Haven’t we lost enough military troops fighting to set up hard core Islamic regimes?
Someone needs to protect the native Serbs left in Kosovo - the ones that haven’t been killed by the Albanian muslims yet.
Our president sure won’t lift a finger against the muslims to save the Serbs.
Why should we risk a major war when we created the mess and are backing the wrong side?
If Russia moves in to protect the Serbs we should wipe our hands of the mess we have made over the last 15 years and pull our people out.
Another UN success story.
Red Storm Rising, thanks to crude and gold.
Ya know, as long as US troops ain’t in the way, I would kinda look forward to that...
And I HATE finding myself on Russian and Putin’s side...
I still just can’t grasp what’s going on there. I can see why Kosovo would want to be independent. They’re in a region where the majority are of a different ethnicity and culture as their rulers. Makes some sense. It doesn’t mean we should support them but I can grasp that.
What I can’t grasp is, why all the protesting in Belgrade? Why are young men and women in their early 20’s burning cars and attacking our embassies?
Why so much hostility to Kosovo’s independence?
What do young college students in Belgrade have to lose?
Why would Russian risk international condemnation and further strain ties with western “friends” over this?
I see the protesters’ photos and they look like the same kids in the US who only care about porn and beer bongs. Maybe you’d get a couple who’d burn some SUV’s over Global Warming. But they wouldn’t care at all if South Carolina wanted to be independent.
I don’t believe it’s the Muslim thing. Although that would be important to me. I perceive the youngsters of Belgrade as being liberal minded, socialist, humanist, hedonists. Who would only jump into action if somebody wanted to take away their right to spit on Bibles. Am I wrong? Are they that ideological?
Can I declare myself a country and receive foreign aid from uncle sugar the Great Satan?
I agree. It would be their best shot at inflicting some damage before they inevitably had their asses handed to them.
The problem for Russia is that if their planes entered Kosovo airspace, NATO could obliterate them pretty handily - so Russia's best bet is to try and get as many Russian troops into Serbia as they could before Romania's government formally requested NATO aid for the violation of their airspace.
So Russia could deploy a bunch of their troops on the Serbia-Kosovo border, as you say.
If they invaded Kosovo at that point, NATO would make short work of them - and Russia would have real difficulty extracting their troops from Serbia after the failure of their little adventure.
What Russia sees here is a confluence of political and economic ($100 oil) events that can help them gain leverage with the EU.
Putin isn't stupid enough to initiate a war that would expose how weak Russia's military really is without gaining him any material advantage.
Couldn’t they just fly troops into Serbia and when they get enough, invade? If Serbia wants Russia’s help wouldn’t they allow them to build up there? I mean, we didn’t just march into Iraq from San Diego. We flew them to Kuwait.
China is backing Russia and Serbia.
Of course.
However, China's logistiical problems in bringing force to bear in Kosovo dwarf Russia's.
If China really wanted to get involved in a global war and tried to deploy troops to Kosovo, NATO could erase any evidence that China's forces ever existed before they could get halfway to the Balkans.
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