If McCain wins, it will be seen as confirmation that you can be a maverick, thumb your nose at your party and the conservatives, and still get elected. McCain will then move the party further to the Left. McCain will also view his election as a mandate to pass amnesty.
If McCain loses, he will blame it on the conservatives. The party will be split and it will take a long time to heal the wounds. All things considered, it is better that he loses than conservatives compromise their principles once again.
If Obama is the candidate, McCain will be trounced no matter what Conservatives do.
214 is dead bang on.