Posted on 02/11/2008 3:48:22 PM PST by Paleo Conservative
AUSTIN — For the first time in 20 years, Texas will have a heated presidential primary election next month, a contest that will bring the state's complex primary and caucus system into play for Democratic hopefuls Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.
"Texas arguably has the most arcane system in the country," state Rep. Juan Garcia, D-Corpus Christi and an Obama backer, told the Houston Chronicle in a story published Sunday. "There are a lot of people scrambling to get smart on it in a hurry."
The Democratic and Republican primaries in Texas are March 4. The Clinton-Obama tussle for national convention delegates is extremely tight, especially after Obama's victories Saturday in Nebraska, Washington and Louisiana.
The last time the Texas Democratic convention delegation was at stake in the midst of a national fight was 1988. Michael Dukakis won the statewide primary that year but virtually split delegates evenly with Jesse Jackson because of the state's unique Democratic nominating process.
Here's a short version of the party rules, which are 11 pages long.
A total of 126 delegates will be awarded based on the outcome of the vote in each of the 31 state senatorial districts.
But the number of delegates available in each district is not equal: Delegates are allocated based on the votes cast in districts in the 2004 and 2006 presidential and gubernatorial elections.
In the heavily urban, black districts of state Sens. Rodney Ellis of Houston and Royce West of Dallas, a good voter turnout in the past two elections means a combined total of 13 delegates are at stake in the two districts on Election Day.
Obama nationally has been winning eight out of 10 black voters, according to network exit polls.
But in the heavily Hispanic districts of state Sens. Juan Hinojosa of McAllen and Eddie Lucio Jr. of Brownsville, election turnout was low, and a combined total of seven delegates are at stake.
Clinton has been taking six of 10 Hispanic votes nationally. So a big South Texas win might not mean as much for Clinton as a big win for Obama in the two black districts.
In 1988, Dukakis won the statewide primary with 33 percent of the vote, followed by Jackson at 25 percent. Al Gore had 20 percent and Richard Gephardt had 14 percent.
But despite Dukakis' clear plurality victory, he split the state's delegates almost evenly. Dukakis took 72 delegates, Jackson 67. Forty-four were uncommitted.
"In '88, Jesse Jackson paid attention to the caucus process and had grass-roots organizers," said Garry Mauro, a former state land commissioner and Hillary Clinton supporter. "Dukakis did not pay attention to the caucus process."
The state's Republican primary is not nearly as complicated. If the GOP race is still alive between Sen. John McCain, the front-runner, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee when the primary arrives, they will find an equal number of nominating delegates available in each of the state's 32 congressional districts.
My Tarrant County vote goes to:
TA TA
Hillary!
But in the heavily Hispanic districts of state Sens. Juan Hinojosa of McAllen and Eddie Lucio Jr. of Brownsville, election turnout was low, and a combined total of seven delegates are at stake.Clinton has been taking six of 10 Hispanic votes nationally. So a big South Texas win might not mean as much for Clinton as a big win for Obama in the two black districts.
If it is a democratIC process, it’d apply to both parties. I will be voting democratically for a REPUBLICAN candidate in my primary.
They are bitching about the democRAT process for allocating DEMOCRAT Delegates.
This crap that they are THE “democratic” party is word games. Truth be told if they are going to the old name, they are the “Democratic-Republicans”. HA HA.
F-in socialists.
Gee, ya don't think it's because those heavily Hispanic districts are also heavily populated with non-voting illegals, huh?
As in years past we will cast our votes to the most beatable canditate from the other side. This year Mrs. Clinton, bless her heart, will be the beneficiary.
Ditto. Near Hulen Mall in Fort Worth. Where u is at?
The flaws in any system become evident when you operate it near its limits or in unanticipated ways. I suspect the rivets are going to pop off many electoral processes this season, and people will be wondering what idiots ever came up with such a design in the first place.
Both parties don't allocate there delegates strictly by population. In the Republican party, states that tend to vote for DemocRATS for President, Congressmen, and Senators get allocated fewer delegates. CA, MA, and NY are under represented, while Texas, Florida, and Wyoming are over represented.
I agree.
NE Tarrant County. Near Keller.
Now, the "logic" behind my candidate selection:
(1). Conventional wisdom (whatever that is) says Hillary is the easiest for a Republican to beat.
(2). Hillary in a general election for POTUS would be a whole lot easier for the conservatives to attack than an "Afro-American" as Hillary is finding out the hard way. So, why go through that?
(3). Hillary will be a whole lot more FUN to campaign against.
(4). My daughter (who is a staunch conservative and whom I love very much - and raised correctly) hates McCain and says she will vote for Obama (only in the primary, though)! I have to cancel out her vote, hehehehe!
The conventional wisdom is wrong.
The corrupt clintons have a plan to win the general. It is probably the same plan they used the last time. Run a conservative third party candidate to split our vot.
If she wins the primary, there is a very good chance she wins the general. They don’t need to peel off many voters given how evenly divided the country has been.
Furthermore, you put her on the air for another year plus you allow her to raise a couple hundred million for her to play with and spend. Help get her off the air now.
As for which would be harder to defeat. Race or Gender? You are forgetting that her ‘gender’ is in the majority. The identity voters will be in a tizzy either way.
H is having trouble because she has deliberately trashed and dissed the African American voting group. Remember, she was leading in that community until just before Super T.
Yep, and a huge number of the black voters would STAY HOME on election day if any, ANY shenanigans can be levied against the Clinton machine that results in Hillary as the nominee. The huge black vote the dems normally get will disappear.
I just love my popcorn, hehehehehe!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.