Posted on 02/08/2008 7:30:45 PM PST by Kurt Evans
Many news organizations report delegate projections based on nonbinding votes for candidate preference. The New York Times counts only delegates that have been officially selected and are bound by their preferences (link in post #2):
695 - Senator McCain
159 - Governor Huckabee
136 - Governor Romney
5 - Congressman Paul
0 - Ambassador Keyes
There'll be 2,380 total delegates selected for the national convention, and a candidate will need the votes of 1,191 of them to win the nomination. So far 995 delegates have been officially selected and are bound by their preferences. Senator McCain would still need the votes of 496 more delegates, or 36 percent of the remaining 1,385, to guarantee nomination on the first ballot. Note that holding Senator McCain to 36 percent in the delegate count doesn't require holding him to 36 percent at the polls, since many states weight their allocation of delegates disproportionately in favor of the winner.
As many of you may know, I supported Congressman Hunter until late October, and I've been supporting Governor Huckabee since then. Obviously my first choice is for Governor Huckabee to win the nomination on the first ballot and select Congressman Hunter as his running mate. He'll need 1,032 of the remaining 1,385 delegates, or 75 percent, to guarantee a first-ballot victory. That sounds like a tall order, but consider that Senator McCain has acquired 70 percent of the bound delegates so far. If public opinion shifts against him, a reversal is clearly possible.
My second choice would be for Governor Huckabee to enter the convention with a plurality of support. Mathematically--with major help from Congressman Paul and/or Ambassador Keyes--that would be possible with 537 of the remaining 1,385 delegates, or about 39 percent. Realistically it would probably require at least 60 to 70 percent.
My third choice would be a brokered convention and the resulting opportunity for conservative delegates to filibuster for a more conservative nominee than Senator McCain, such as Congressman Hunter. As explained above, that would require holding Senator McCain to less than 36 percent of the remaining delegates. That is, 64 percent of them would have to support other candidates or abstain from the convention's first vote.
My fourth choice would be simply to prevent McCain delegates from running roughshod over the party's pro-family conservative heritage and recreating the national platform in their own liberal image. The solution to that potential problem is recognizing that even if you've been brain-Rushed into personally despising Governor Huckabee, his delegates are generally much, much more conservative than Senator McCain's. The greater the number of conservative Huckabee delegates who make it to the convention, the better off the party and the nation will be in the long run.
In closing, anyone who says we have to immediately unite behind Senator McCain is lying. This campaign is over a year old, and the general election is nine months away. A few more weeks of ideological debate will do much more good than harm. And anyone who says in the present tense that Senator McCain "is the nominee"--Rush Limbaugh for example--is lying. Real conservatives aren't quitters.
“Do you know how the individual states work with regard to ‘winner take all’ delegates or percentages?”
Not all of them.
“Also, which remining states are closed primaries?”
Maryland, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Kentucky, Oregon, New Mexico and South Dakota.
“I’m trying to formulate a favorable state-by-state scenario.”
We need average victory margins of roughly 20 points in states that allocate delegates proportionally.
LOL
Thanks for keeping hope alive. Huckabee is still the republican party’s best chance in November. Especially if Obama is the opponent. Huckabee can crush him in debates, match him in speeches, equals, if not bests him in tenacity and energy. He has executive experience, a way more realistic approach on the WOT, and in an election of change is the true outsider, not a Wash. politician, not an Ivy League lawyer. Keep pushing Huckabee. He is, by far the best guy.
Thanks.
“You seem to be hoping that with Romney now out of the race, that the conservatives will flock to Huckabee in droves and pull out a victory for conservatism.”
There is that hope, but discerning conservatives have noticed that Huck is a Huckster and not in too many ways better than MCain. they both are nanny-staters at heart, even as they both mouth the conservative platitudes. They both have a soft-on-illegals record, even as they both ratchet up the close-the-borders rhetoric.
” We’ll see. I don’t know yet how I will vote in Texas in March. I don’t have many choices left.”
I am in Texas and I can guarantee this: I will NOT vote for Huckabee, and I will NOT vote for McCain.
Accurate statement: McCain is the presumptive nominee.
Unless he keels over and dies,
McCain will garner the majority of delegates needed and will be the GOP nominee.
Rush, as usual, is telling the truth.
“HE ONLY HAS ABOUT HALF THE DELEGATES NEEDED TO WIN!”
Quit yelling, you are wrong. He has over 700 delegates and need 1191. He is well on his way.
i totally agree. i am in VA and i make the same guarantee.
McCain has given indications that he is easily manipulated by Democrats. Has Huckabee given any such indications?
Besides, Step One is to deny the nomination to McCain in the first round. We'll worry about Step Two later.
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