Ok, explain to me how Mike Huckabee can reasonably win it. It takes 1191 delegates to win the nomination.
Currently the counts are (source: RCP)
McCain: 720
Romney: 279
Huckabee: 197
The remaining states with their delegate counts are:
Feb 9:
Louisiana :44
Washington (caucus): 18
Kansas: 36
Feb 12:
Virginia: 60
Maryland: 34
D.C.: 19
Feb 16:
Guam: 6
Feb 19:
Washington (primary):18
Wisconsin: 37
Feb 23:
U.S. Virgin Island: 6
Northern Marianas Islands: 6
American Samoa: 6
Feb 24:
Puerto Rico: 20
March 4:
Texas: 137
Ohio: 85
Rhode Island: 17
Vermont: 14
March 11:
Mississippi: 36
April 22:
Pennsylvania: 71
May 6:
North Carolina: 66
Indiana: 54
May 13:
Nebraska: 30
May 20:
Kentucky: 42
Oregon: 27
May 27:
Idaho: 29
June 3:
South Dakota: 24
New Mexico: 29
Note that each state also gets 3 “super delegates”, those being the two RNC members from the state and the state party chair.
Of those elections the only “winner-take-all” ones I’m aware of are: Vermont, Indiana, D.C., Virginia, Puerto Rico
They said on the Radio that to get Louisianas delegates you have to get over 50 percent.
Ron Paul probably gets enough to keep that from happening.
Huckabee needs to win 83.3% of the remaining delegates to win.
Huckabee (we) just need to deny McCain a first ballot victory.
“Ok, explain to me how Mike Huckabee can reasonably win it. It takes 1191 delegates to win the nomination.”
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html
So far only 808 of McCain’s delegates are officially bound to vote for him on the first ballot at the convention. He’d need 383 more to win the nomination. According to a Tuesday night press release from McCain’s campaign, there were 774 delegates available in the remaining contests. That means McCain would still need to win at least 49.5 percent of the remaining delegates to guarantee nomination on the first ballot and prevent an open convention.
The results of an open convention will probably be largely dependent on what happens between now and then.